U.S. Presidential Race Update The Latest Polls: So Why Is It Still Close?

This weekend, new polling results were released. Here are the numbers:

• Harris 52-46 (+6) ABC News
• Harris 50-45 (+5) Morning Consult
• Harris 47-42 (+5) Ipsos
• Harris 51-47 (+4) RMG
• Harris 50-46 (+4) Data For Progress
• Harris 49-45 (+4) YouG/Yahoo
• Harris 49-45 (+4) YouG/Times
• Harris 47-43 (+4) TIPP
• Harris 50-47 (+3) Leger
• Harris 48-45 (+3) SoCal
• Harris 44-42 (+2) Redfield & Wilton

As you can see, some of the polls are outside the margin of error, while others are well within—so the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains competitive. But why?

First, remember that polls are just a snapshot in time about how a respondent feels about the choices. Polls are not predictive, although if consistent, polls do reveal trends. Since Vice President Harris entered the race, she has had the momentum.  The Democratic National Convention helped boost her momentum as did the most recent debate.

But, as I have written here previously, the U.S. does not conduct a national election, and while national polls like those outlined above are helpful, they are not determinative. Also, when President Biden won the 2020 election he had a 4.5% lead in most national polls. While Vice President Harris has achieved that margin and more in some polls, other polls show a gap of only 2%.

Additionally, there are only seven states where the election is close. Those states are Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, known as the “blue wall”, plus North Carolina and Georgia in the South and Arizona and Nevada in the West. Recall that President Biden did not win North Carolina and Georgia, while Arizona and Nevada were remarkably close. When the results were certified, Biden won Arizona by 10,457 votes, Georgia by 12,670 votes, and Nevada by 33,596 votes. And Biden won Wisconsin by only 20,682 votes.

The most recent polling averages show how tight the race is. Here are the numbers:

Harris                                                            Trump

Nevada                                                 47%                                                                46.2%

Arizona                                                46.4%                                                            47.6%

Wisconsin                                           50%                                                                47%

Michigan                                             48.6%                                                            47.4%

North Carolina                                   47.3%                                                            47.1%

Georgia                                                46.5%                                                            47.8%

Pennsylvania                                      47.4%                                                            46.6%

In the seven states that matter in 2024, the polling demonstrates that the race is close—and all the margins are within the margin of error.

Moreover, since the polls were wrong in 2016 and 2020, why should we believe them? The polls were off then—in some cases by a lot—but pollsters have made several adjustments. Pollsters have found that voters who are likely to support Trump or support Trump are underrepresented in polls because they do not like to participate in research.

Since 2020, pollsters have been adjusting the number of voters who support Trump upwards in the polling results. Additionally, college educated voters tend to be overrepresented in polling research, so adjustments downward have been made. Like any research, polling is subject to adjustments on a justifiable basis and not on a whim. It is always important, when reviewing a poll, to look at the mythology to see whether adjustments have been made and if so, what they are.

Pollsters also factor in enthusiasm. It was clear that enthusiasm was low for President Biden’s reelection, while enthusiasm among former President Trump’s base remained steady. This factor became known as the “double haters”—people who did not want either Biden or Trump. Since Vice President Harris entered the race, “double haters” have decreased as many of those voters moved to support her candidacy.

Another factor that pollsters look at to determine enthusiasm is voter registration.  In key states such as North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Democratic Party registrations have outpaced Republican Party registrations. In other states where party affiliation is not identified, voter registration by young women and young women of color have increased dramatically. Data firms in comparing 2020 and 2024 voter registration data in the same week found an increase among black women under 30 of 183% and an increase among Hispanic women under 30 of 172%. While this data does not disclose their choice of candidate, it does give pollsters information about enthusiasm and, based on demographic information, likelihood of support.

Early voting begins in some states as early as September 20th. The cycle of voting and participation will also impact the race’s dynamics. Early voting results are NEVER reported, but where voter rolls identify party affiliation, we may know which party is voting early or whether non-affiliated voters are voting early.

While we are only 48 days away from the election—in politics, events can change a race in 48 hours so we will continue to watch the dynamics closely.