U.S. Presidential Election Update: Current State of Play

As you know from reading the news, there are a lot of changes in the Presidential race.  There are two new candidates—Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Tim Walz for the Democrats. The Republican ticket remains the same with former President Trump and Senator J. D. Vance.

Beyond the new candidates, there has been a whirlwind of activity that no one could have predicted. The Harris-Walz team has raised over $300 million dollars from small donors who give under $1,000. Team Harris-Walz has consolidated the Democratic Party well in advance of the Democratic National Convention, which will take place August 19 – 22.  Thousands of new volunteers are joining the campaign to support the Harris-Walz ticket.

There have been huge rallies for the new pair, breaking records for Democratic Party events in city after city. In all, Harris-Walz have traveled to the seven competitive states to rally crowds of supporters to join their team. And the polls have moved in the direction of Harris-Walz. Although not predictive of an outcome, all observers note that the energy— a.k.a. “the vibe”—is currently with Harris-Walz. Many predict that the Democrats will get another “bounce” upwards in the polls following the four-day convention.

The news has not been as good for the Republican ticket. J.D. Vance has made several missteps, including calling out women who have chosen not to have children as “cat ladies.” When confronted, Vance apologized to “cats”, though not to the women he may have insulted. Former President Trump has not campaigned in any competitive state but instead chose to travel to Montana to insert himself into the Senate race where the Trump-endorsed candidate, Tim Sheehy, is running against incumbent John Testa, a former Governor and Senator. The race is virtually tied.

Former President Trump also held a news conference at Mar-a-Lago that many, including Republicans have criticized. Recently on his social media site, former President Trump has focused on challenging the truth of the Harris-Walz crowd sizes, claiming the crowds are fake and the numbers are AI-generated.

Republican donors and insiders are urging former President Trump to criticize Harris-Walz for unpopular policies, the economy, and immigration. While President Trump does criticize Harris-Walz on the economy and immigration, most of his message is focused on Harris as a woman and a minority—the very criticisms the Republican Party wants Mr. Trump to ignore.

Even with the Trump-Vance team’s missteps, the Presidential race is close. While many polls show Harris-Walz leading in key states, those leads are within the margin of error. Everything will depend on whether Harris-Walz can get more people to the polls then Trump-Vance. The on-the-ground organization does favor the Democrats. Republicans decided early on to “outsource” their “Get Out the Vote” strategy, while the Democrats have thousands of local volunteers and in-state party operations run by local party leaders.

There is a previously scheduled debate between former President Trump and Vice President Harris scheduled for September 10. Former President Trump had said he would not debate Harris because this debate had been scheduled for a Trump-Biden rematch—however recently Mr. Trump has agreed to the scheduled debate.

While the United States does not hold a national election—the Electoral College decides who will be elected president and vice president—models show that Harris-Walz currently have a 2.5% advantage nationally. In 2020, the Biden-Harris ticket won a close election with a 4.3% advantage nationally. Harris-Walz continue to be the underdogs in the 2024 race. With only 85 days to go, and less time for early voting, much can happen, and much can change.