U.S. Off-Year Elections

There has been much talk about whether the 2025 “off-year” elections in the United States are an indication of what will happen in the 2026 mid-term elections when 435 Members of the House of Representatives and 33 Senators will be up for election. If you are a Republican, the answer is ‘No.’ Republican reasoning is simple. They claim New Jersey and Virginia are so-called ‘Blue States’ (tend to vote for Democrats) so the results were not a surprise.  If you are a Democrat, the answer is ‘Yes.’ And these election results prove that Democrats will win in the upcoming mid-terms.

Unfortunately for both parties, neither is true. Election results and tools such as polling are more nuanced and typically not predictive. Additionally, the mid-term elections are one year away and a lot can, and will, happen. That said, there are shifts in voting patterns that are worth noting and analyzing. Moreover, the shifts in voting should be of concern to Republicans.

Let’s take a closer look at what happened in Virginia. It was expected that the Democrat, Abigail Spanberger, would be elected. The Republican candidate, Winsome Earle-Sears, had challenges and the Republican Party walked away from her race early-on. The expectation was that Spanberger would win by 10 points. She won by 15 points. The “down ballot” races for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General were very competitive and both Democrats and Republicans thought the Republican candidates could win. This was especially true for the Democrat who was running for Attorney General, Jay Jones. The results were quite different.  The Lieutenant Governor, the first Muslim ever elected to a statewide office, Ghazala Hashimi, won by 11 points and the troubled Attorney General won by 7 points.

Further down ballot, the Democrats routed the Republicans, flipping 13 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. The Democrats will now control 64 seats in the 100-seat state legislature, critical for re-districting and moving the Governor’s legislative agenda.

What drives election outcomes is who turns out to vote. The American Communities Project chart below shows exactly where the shifts happen in Virginia. As you can see, while Republicans continue to have strong support in many communities, the shift from support for Republican candidate to supporting the Democrat candidate was the cause for the dramatic gains in the House of Delegates and for the wins in the state-wide offices for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General. These results happened despite strong Republican financial support for candidates up, and down, the ballot. Importantly, working class voters in Virginia shifted +4 points for the Democrats. Since President Trump’s election in 2024, Democrats have been trying to improve their stake among working class voters. This shift shows the results of their efforts as Democrats focused squarely on affordability. Democrats also improved among every voter community including evangelical and rural voters.

Virginia 2024 and 2025

Source: US Election Atlas data and American Communities Project analysis

In New Jersey, the dynamics for the election for Governor were much different. There was a competitive primary vote among several Democrats, and Mikie Sherrill won. There was concern that the primary election may cause some splits among the voters. The Republican candidate, Jack Ciattarelli, was a strong candidate and nearly won four years ago against the sitting Governor Phil Murphy. The sitting Governor had a very low approval rating and many thought that would impact the race, causing the Democratic Party nominee to lose. The Republican Party was on the attack and spent a lot of money to support their candidate. Finally, while New Jersey votes “blue” (Democrat) in Presidential races, President Trump lost New Jersey by only six points, and New Jersey hardly ever elects back-to-back a Democratic candidate for Governor.  All these factors – much different from the factors in Virginia – led everyone to believe, including every poll, that the race was very close. Many polls predicted that the Republican, Ciattarelli, would win. Other polls had Sherrill up by only one or two points. Yet she won by 13 points. Why? The voters that came to vote want a different set of policies than what the Republicans were offering. The shift in voters’ sentiment is shown in the chart below. Again, in every category, voters moved from Republicans to Democrats. The greatest shift is among Hispanic or Latino voters who moved eight points, helping to give Mikki Sherrill an unpredicted victory over Ciattarelli. 

New Jersey 2024 and 2025

Source: US Election Atlas data and American Communities Project analysis

No one knows whether these trends will last through November 2026. The driving issue in both races was affordability. The second issue was democracy. Immigration, a driver in the 2024 election, was not on the ballot, but the very public arrests in nearly every community of Latinos was an issue in this off-year election.

A lot could change in one year. The U.S. economy could improve. The immigration raids could be limited. The Administration could change course on tariffs and other measures that are increasing costs for everyday American consumers. Or the Administration could stay the course.  One unknown is the impact of the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ passed by Congress earlier this year.  While the Republicans have delayed its impact until after the 2026 elections, the cost of health care and the closing of many rural hospitals and medical facilities because of the changes in that bill have begun.

Based on these results and the legislative impacts yet to come, staying the course may not be the best option for Republicans to take.