U.S. Midterm Elections: What is going on in the U.S. Elections?

We are now 47 days out from the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, and we are gaining some clarity on what may happen, at least in the House of Representatives. Most, if not all analysis, believes the Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives, but no one knows whether it will be close or a so-called “blue wave.”

Here’s a way to think about what is happening. Not to get into the weeds, but House Congressional districts are defined in terms of whether they “lean” Republican or Democrat, are “likely” Republican or Democrat, or are truly “toss-up” districts. Because of gerrymandering, where state legislatures go through a process of “picking voters” rather than voters electing leaders, there are fewer toss-up or competitive districts. Districts tend to lean one way or the other.

Another factor in understanding the possible outcome of this year’s midterm elections is what is known as the “generic ballot.” The generic ballot is determined by asking voters if they were to vote today, would they vote for a Democrat, a Republican, or neither party. The result—without naming the actual candidates—is the “generic ballot.” As of today, Democrats are leading by six points in the generic ballot.

So why are these identifications—lean, likely, toss-up, and generic—important? These identifiers help us understand the likelihood of which party will control the House and, to some extent, the number of seats that will “flip” to the other party.

To understand the extent of the change that could happen, let’s first look at the party designation of districts and pick a number lower than the “generic ballot,” such as four. The number ‘four’ means that to win, Democrats must be polling at least four points ahead of the Republican incumbent or challenger. There are currently 54 seats held by Republicans that are identified as “leaning” Republican by four or fewer points. Right now, based on the generic ballot, Democrats have a six point advantage, so any Republican-held seat that is designated “R4” or less is competitive. This does not mean a Democrat will win, but that a Democrat has a good chance to win.

Moreover, having 54 seats within four points does not mean the Democrats will win all 54 seats. But it does mean that the Democratic Party, needing three seats to take over the majority, will have a lot of room to run.

One well-known political analyst, Charlie Cook, has described the upcoming midterm elections for Republicans as “bad, really bad, or truly horrible,” “Bad” means a loss of 15-25 seats in the House and no change, or little change, in the Senate. “Really bad” is a loss of 26-35 seats in the House and four or five seats gained for Democrats in the Senate. “Horrible” is a 6-seat gain in the Senate for Democrats.

President Trump tried to stem the tide of losses by ordering several states to redraw maps so that Republican districts would have more Republican voters. We will not know whether redrawing these districts means Democrats will lose every re-drawn district, but Democrats’ margin will certainly be decreased by Trump’s partisan mid-decade re-drawing efforts.

The other factor in U.S. elections is money—and the Republicans and their billionaire allies have more of it, and they are willing to spend. To counter the millions of dollars Republicans will spend against Democrats, Democrats knowing that big money would enter the races, bought media time early on. By reserving time early, Democrats’ media costs are 4-5 times cheaper or a 75 percent discount. Buying add time early helps to close the money gap, although it will never fully close; Republicans have much more money from their wealthy allies. It will matter, but whether it will stop the Democrats from winning is unlikely.

Looking at all these factors means that Democrats will face challenges, but it is possible that they net 26 seats in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. Achieving 26 seats means that Democrats would have to win all the seats identified as toss-ups, lean Democrat AND lean Republican.  This also means Democrats would get about half of all Republican-held seats that are designated “R+4” or less.

There remains a lot of time until the November 3rd Election Day and anything could happen.  Issues concerning mail-in balloting are before the U.S. Supreme Court. President Trump has threatened voters at the polls with military and other “observers” and there are many tactics already playing out to depress voter turnout.

From now until the election, we will send updates on specific races in the House and the Senate and explanations on U.S. Supreme Court rulings, should those rulings impact the elections.

Stay tuned.