U.S. Congressional Update

On November 12, after 45 days, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history came to an end.

In the Senate, eight Democrats joined with 52 Republicans – thus meeting the required 60 vote threshold – in voting for a “continuing resolution” that will fund most federal agencies and programs through January 30, 2026 and a “minibus” of three relatively non-controversial fiscal year 2026 appropriations bills, including Agriculture, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, and Legislative Branch.

The legislation includes a provision that rescinds the mass firing of federal workers during the shutdown, and Democrats were able to extract a pledge from Majority Leader John Thune that the Senate will hold a vote to address expiring subsidies under Obamacare – the key issue for Democrats during the Shutdown.

Two days later the House approved the package by a vote of 222-209, with no comparable pledge from House Speaker Mike Johnson, and only six Democrats voting yes – and the legislation was signed into law that evening by the President.

That paved the way for a resumption of “normal” government activities – federal workers are getting paid, Americans are receiving desperately needed nutritional assistance, national parks have reopened, and FAA flight restrictions have been lifted.

Understandably, this outcome has provoked a vigorous debate inside the Democratic party. Did the Senate Democrats “cave” too soon, given that polling showed Republicans shouldering most of the blame for the shutdown? Was there any other viable pathway for Democrats to “win” the shutdown? Did they achieve some of their goals by placing health care at the center of the national conversation?

With the House having been in recess for 54 days before and during the shutdown, and the Senate having conducted little business during that period, Congress returns to town this week with a long “to do” list for the remainder of 2025.

This week, the House checked the first item off the list by voting overwhelmingly for legislation that requires the full, public release of the so-called “Epstein files.” The Senate quickly followed suit, and the President signed the bill into law. However, the Epstein saga is far from over, as the onus is now on the Administration to release the files, and we don’t expect that process to go smoothly.

Another high priority is the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which is always considered a “must-pass” piece of legislation. Key members of the House and Senate are currently engaged in negotiations on a compromise version of the bill that can pass both bodies.

Third, Democrats and some Republicans are focused on a fix for the Obamacare subsidies. Since a clean extension is opposed by most Republicans, centrists in both parties are seeking common ground on a package of “reforms” to the program that could win broad bipartisan support. Whether they can overcome the intense politics on this issue remains to be seen.

Finally, work is continuing on the fiscal year 2026 appropriations process. Three appropriations bills passed as part of the CR package, leaving nine to go. The Senate is working on a second “minibus” that would include four or five of the remaining bills, but it is not clear yet whether they will be able to reach agreement with the House. In fact, given the differences between the bodies on a host of key issues, it is very likely that some government agencies and programs will be funded through additional CRs for the remainder of the fiscal year.