Insight and Analysis

By Barbara Shailor, former Special Representative for International Labor Affairs at the Department of State and Senior Advisor to Blue Star Strategies. 

The International Labor Organization–the United Nations Specialized Agency designated to monitor global trends in employment–has just released "Global Employment Trends 2014: The risk of a jobless recovery," which raises new concerns about joblessness, particularly among the young. The ILO reports that in 2013, more than 202 million jobseekers were unemployed across the world, an increase of 5 million since 2012. The global jobs gap since the economic collapse in 2008 now totals about 62 million. The ILO projects that unemployment and the jobs gap will continue to worsen through 2018.

Nearly 75 million young people–ages 15-24 –are unemployed, again an increase over 2012. The youth unemployment rate at 13.1% is over three times that of adults, a historic discrepancy. In some countries, one out of every four young people is neither employed nor in education or training. Several countries now risk a lost generation, with calamitous implications.

Not surprisingly, the average duration of unemployment has lengthened; with long-term unemployed double that of pre-crisis rates. Even in the U.S., which has one of the more promising job pictures, 40% of all jobseekers suffer long-term unemployment.

Even more striking is the number of workers trapped in vulnerable employment (defined as self-employed or work by contributing family members) or in the informal economy. In Central America, 70% or more workers labor in the informal economy. In South Asia and Southeast Asia, the percentage rises to 90 %.

Given this, it is not surprising that a staggering 839 million workers–or more than one fourth of the global workforce–survive on less than $2.00 a day. This represents progress from the beginning of the century, due largely to growth in China and India.

 As is the case with most official tripartite multilateral reports, the ILO document is understated, factual and terse. It concludes that the global economy suffers from insufficient aggregate demand, leading to widespread job shortages. It warns that austerity–what it terms “fiscal consolidation”–is a drag on demand and growth. It urges that governments consider rebalancing their fiscal policies and take action to empower workers.

The dry statistics and charts of the ILO report should not mislead. This is, in a sense, a cry for action. Unemployment–particularly among the young–is too high. Joblessness is destructive of individuals, of families, of communities, and ultimately of nations. The ILO projects that the crisis will continue to get worse without a marked change of course. We see its expressions already in upheaval in the Middle East, North Africa, and Southern Europe that experience crippling unemployment rates among the young.

Across the world, economic ministers seek credit for the recovery of their economies.

But there is no such thing as a jobless recovery. If the economy is not working for working people, it simply is not working.

Burundi, a small, landlocked country in central Africa, is currently experiencing the most intense political and social turmoil since its 12-year-long civil war ended in 2005.  The turmoil was sparked by the ruling National Council for the Defense of Democracy–Forces for the Defense of Democracy(CNDD-FDD) party’s announcement that President Pierre Nkurunziza will seek a controversial third term in elections slated for the end of June, prohibited by the Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement that ended the civil war. Nkurunziza’s supporters argue that the Constitution allows him to serve another term because he was first elected by Parliament, not by direct suffrage, but the opposition maintains that a third term would be unconstitutional. This has led to widespread protests in the capital Bujumbura, leaving more than 20 dead and hundreds injured as protesters have been met with live ammunition from police and military forces. 

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Chilean President Michelle Bachelet recently called for the resignation of her entire cabinet, replacing five ministers and moving four to new positions. The move comes in the wake of corruption scandals and economic woes that have shaken many Chileans’ faith in both the political system and in the Bachelet administration.

Bachelet has painted the cabinet shuffle as a way to refocus her policy agenda, which includes education, tax, and constitutional reforms. However, the move demonstrates the failure of the left-leaning stance that has defined Bachelet’s first months in office. With this new cabinet, Bachelet has signaled a return to a more moderate position in order to shore up support for her reform agenda.

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By James Le Grice of London-based Network Partner Insight Consulting Group

The UK General Election is just over a week away, and political pundits are almost unanimously ruling out the prospect of any party winning a Parliamentary majority. This year’s election has seen an unprecedented focus on popular small parties and the potential coalition agreements that either Labour or the Conservatives may seek with them to form a government. Many question whether Britain is seeing the end of its traditional two-party system. This point, however, is overstated. The unlikelihood of either major party securing a majority reflects more on recent shifts in their ratio of Parliamentary seats and the struggle of their leadership to appeal to a wide support base than it does on a British preference for coalitions.

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Excerpted from an article by Jeffrey Gedmin, Blue Star Senior Advisor, Co-Director of the Transatlantic Renewal Project at the World Affairs Institute, and Chairman, global politics and security, at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is coming to Washington. We should listen carefully to what he says.

I had a chance to get a feel for Abe’s challenge on a recent visit to Tokyo and Okinawa as part of a delegation of policy experts and former senior U.S. officials (the trip was sponsored by the Japanese foreign ministry)…

What I heard in Japan was almost identical to what one hears in Eastern Europe these days. In a world where Kantian idealism clashes ever increasingly with Hobbesian brute force—as Leon Aron puts it in the case of Ukraine, a situation where the West wants peace, and Putin wants victory—the West would do well do take seriously the challenges that are the true drivers of Japan’s new realism under Shinzo Abe. As one influential Japanese analyst told me and colleagues: “What Vladimir Putin is doing on the ground, the Chinese are now doing in this part of the world by sea.”

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Last month the leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAU) met in Astana, Kazakhstan, to discuss regional economic growth strategies. Despite the EAU having been launched only three months ago, the summit underscored the degree to which geopolitical struggles in the post-Soviet landscape are undermining the economic benefits of the alliance. The Union was set to represent the strength of Eurasian regional ties and offer an alternative to other free trade agreements. And yet, despite its potential and the goals it had set for itself, the alliance is showing signs of weakness and intensifying rifts between its constituents, ranging from economic interests to international political matters.

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Since being elected, Pope Francis (formerly Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio of Argentina) has not shied away from speaking out on difficult or controversial topics.  Whether or not one believes that the Pope should have a role in speaking on matters related to foreign policy, his opinion is influential and widely reported throughout the world.  Thus far, he seems to want to exercise his role as an international diplomat energetically and has become and outspoken advocate on numerous subjects and enabled dialogue between opposing parties.    

Pope Francis most recently caused waves by referring to the WWI Turkish massacre of an estimated one and a half million Armenians as genocide, a term which President Obama and some other world leaders will not use regardless of lobbying by Armenian-Americans and the Armenian government.  The Turkish government reacted to the Pope’s choice of words with anger and President Erdogan said in a speech, "I condemn the pope and would like to warn him not to make similar mistakes again."  The Pope did not recant his statement and emphasized his belief in “frankness,” even though the Turkish government recalled their envoy to the Vatican. 

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By James Le Grice of London-based Network Partner Insight Consulting Group

 This March marks four years since the start of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) intervention in Libya that ousted Muammar Gaddafi. The intervention, spearheaded by Britain and France, was hailed at the time as Europe taking the lead in protecting the security of its own neighbourhood. Four years on, Libya is a failed state and a potential staging ground for terrorist attacks within the European Union. However, European enthusiasm to tackle the war next door has grown gradually colder despite its threat to Europe growing gradually hotter.

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By Vaughan Meyer, Master's Candidate at Georgetown University's Walsh School of Foreign Service

 In the past year, attacks on companies like Sony Pictures and Target captured attention and alerted the public to the extent of the United States cyber-vulnerability, and cybersecurity rose to primacy in social and political debate. The US government has responded with legislation and policy proposals, but some advocates say these efforts do not go far enough to address this problem’s complexity. However the debate unfolds, cybersecurity will only grow in importance as the economy and the world population become increasingly connected.

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The Spanish center-right Partido Popular (PP) won the 2011 election in Spain with almost 50% of the vote, giving them a comfortable majority in Parliament.   This looks set to change in the upcoming electoral year which is expected to undo the post-Franco two-party political system in Spain.  Two recently formed parties, Podemos, which is closely linked to Greece’s ruling Syriza party, and Ciudadanos have entered the scene and both would likely take over 20% of the vote if the general election were held today. 

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