Insight and Analysis
The Year Ahead in South America
January 2016
In 2016 we expect a number of political and economic changes in South America, from the implementation of new policies by the recently-elected government in Argentina and new legislature in Venezuela, to upcoming general elections in Peru and an important municipal election in Brazil. In addition to the political changes in the region many countries are facing severe economic problems, most notably Brazil, Venezuela and Argentina. Amidst the potential for political turmoil and economic difficulties however there is also hope – Colombia may finish negotiating with the Farc rebels this year thereby putting an end to a fifty-two year long conflict.
The Execution of Nimr al-Nimr and the Sunni vs Shia Illusion
January 2016
By James Le Grice of Insight Consulting Group
The New Year was barely a day old before the Saudi-Iranian cold war heated up again. The beheading of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, the Shia cleric at the head of anti-regime protests in eastern Saudi Arabia, was swiftly answered with threats of "divine revenge" from Iran and the torching of the Saudi embassy in Tehran. Diplomatic relations were severed and a war of words ensued. Over the past three weeks, Saudi Arabia and Iran’s regional allies have rallied behind either side in the dispute, and western commentators have been quick to label the whole affair as yet another chapter in the interminable Sunni-Shia conflict. However, the execution of Nimr al-Nimr is a prime example of why the “Sunni vs Shia” narrative is misleading.
The Election in Myanmar: A chance for democracy?
Amidst the terrible news of recent weeks there has been one bright spot- Myanmar held its first contested national election since 1990. The National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Nobel Peace Prize winner and activist Aung San Suu Kyi, won by an overwhelming landslide and has taken over 80 percent of the contested seats in the Parliament. This result handily surpasses the two-thirds seats required to form a government and select the next president.
Poland Swings Right in National Elections
For the first time since 1989, a single political party has garnered enough votes to form an absolute parliamentary majority in Poland. With no need to form a coalition, the conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS) will seek to make its own mark on national politics as Poland transitions away from the centrist Civic Platform, which has led the country’s coalition government since 2007.
Venezuela’s Threatened Elections
On December 6 Venezuelans will head to the polls in a decisive election that will determine the composition of the nation’s National Assembly. While President Nicolas Maduro has done his best to prevent an opposition victory – gerrymandering districts and monopolizing the airwaves – several polls have shown widespread dissatisfaction with the current ruling party. Unlike most elections, December 6 will not be about the direction voters wish their country go in. Rather, it will be a test of Venezuela’s electoral and institutional integrity as Maduro will surely continue to undermine any semblance of democratic process in Venezuela while he is in power.
Not Quiet on the Eastern Front: Baltics Boost Defense Efforts
With the world’s attention captured by Russian airstrikes in Syria, Russian president Vladimir Putin hopes to distract from his stalled and costly intervention in eastern Ukraine. For the tiny Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania however, the lessons of Crimea and the Donbas are not so easily forgotten. In recent months, the Baltics have been taking concrete steps to upgrade their military capabilities and develop a strategic response to the threat of Russian aggression on their own territory.
Argentina in the Post-Kirchner Era
Last week, millions of Argentines went to the polls to cast their ballot for the first election in 12 years that did not include the surname Kirchner. With nearly all the votes counted, the two leading candidates – Mauricio Macri of the Cambiemos party and Daniel Scioli of the Victory Front ruling party (FPV) —will head to a presidential runoff next month. Although polling suggested a wide gap between the two candidates, Mr. Scioli and Mr. Macri finished with 36.7% and 34.5%, respectively. Despite the heated campaign, both candidates will have to act quickly in the post-Kirchner era and guide their country out of the economic malaise that has plagued Argentina for several years.
Russia’s Struggle to Maintain Energy Hegemony in Europe
Last week, the Obama administration instructed the U.S. government to take all necessary steps to initiate the adoption process for the Iranian nuclear deal, as negotiated last July between Iran and the P5 + 1 nations. After receiving approval from the United Nations Security Council, Iran began to take all necessary steps to restrain its nuclear program, while the United States and Europe began issuing approved sanction waivers for Iranian energy and financial companies.
Fairness Award to be presented to Nobel Peace Prize Winner Houcine Abassi
On November 2nd the Global Fairness Initiative will present its annual Fairness Award to Houcine Abassi, Secretary General of the Union Générale Tunisienne du Travail (UGTT), Paul Brest from Stanford Law School and Myrtle Witbooi, General Secretary of the South African Domestic Service and Allied Workers Union. The award is of particular interest this year because Mr. Abassi is a member of the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet which was recently awarded the 2015 Nobel Peace Prize "for its decisive contribution to the building of a pluralistic democracy in Tunisia in the wake of the Jasmine Revolution of 2011.”
Mr. Abassi was instrumental and used his position as the head of the UGTT to bring other civil society groups together to create a national dialogue, namely the Tunisian Union of Industry, Commerce and Artisans, the Tunisian Human Rights League, and the National Association of Lawyers. This Quartet then became a critical player in drafting the 2013 Tunisian constitution and in assisting with the formation of a democratic interim government.
The Quartet used their influence to keep the sitting government and opposition at the negotiating table, even though the country was rocked by assassinations and a potential Islamist insurgency. Mr. Abassi reportedly personally threatened widespread labor protests to ensure that the negotiators stayed put, and he and the other negotiators gave the Tunisian people a voice at the table. Many believe that this is why the Constitution expressly recognizes that men and women are equal and says that while Islam is the state religion, religious freedom is the law of the land.
Their efforts led to Tunisia’s first-ever fair and free election in December 2014. The winner was a secularist, Beji Caid Essebsi, and though there were some concerns because Mr. Essebsi had held office under both of the previous dictators, the government has held and was able to form a governing coalition. In addition, the government has made overtures to the Islamist opposition parties.
Though the countries’ democratic transition has been successful thus far it faces numerous challenges, including widespread unemployment and economic difficulties, in part due to the sharp decrease in tourists after the Arab Spring and then the terrorist attack at the beach resort in Sousse which killed thirty-nine people.
However, despite the country’s economic concerns it has not descended into chaos, unlike the other countries which toppled (or attempted to topple) dictators during the Arab Spring, namely Egypt, Syria, Yemen and Libya. The Peace Prize credits the Quartet with a major contribution to Tunisia’s democratic transition and relative stability. After receiving the prize Mr. Abassi was quoted as saying, “It’s a message that dialogue can lead us on the right path. This prize is a message for our region to put down arms and sit and talk at the negotiation table.”
In addition to his work in bringing dialogue to his country, Mr. Abassi remains a critical labor leader in Tunisia. The Global Fairness Initiative is currently working in Tunisia, along with Partners for Democratic Change, to implement the Tunisia Inclusive Labor Initiative. The Initiative aims to bring the 40% of working Tunisians working in the informal sector either into the formal sector or to find a way to grant them greater labor protections. It was through this Initiative that GFI first met Mr. Abassi to discuss how to formalize more Tunisian workers and this led to his being honored with the Fairness Award for his work on behalf of working men and women in Tunisia.
Like the Peace Prize, the Fairness Award also hopes to inspire others specifically a, “new generation of leaders to dedicate themselves to economic justice, fairness, and equality,” and Mr. Abassi is certainly a figure to follow. For more information about the Fairness Award please check out http://fairnessaward.org/.
Syria’s war comes to Europe
By James LeGrice of Insight Consulting Group
Europe is no longer insulated from Syria’s civil war. This month, refugees, mainly from Syria, arrived in Greece at a rate of over 5,000 per day. They join half a million who have fled Syria and other conflict zones this year to a European Union drastically unprepared for an exodus of this magnitude. There is a risk now that European nations will opt for quick solutions to deliver short term results at the expense of long term challenges. Europe is divided on how to accommodate, and whether it even should accommodate, the refugees.
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