Insight and Analysis

March 2016

In 1993 the UN created World Water Day to focus on water’s critical role in the life of every global citizen and world peace. This year, on March 22, the UN reported that 3 of 4 jobs globally rely on water.  Moreover, by 2050 at least one in four people is likely to live in a country affected by chronic or recurring shortages of free water.

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March 2016

By James LeGrice of Insight Consulting Group

Ask a Brexit supporter why Britain should leave the European Union and you will get one of a variety of answers. Stemming immigration, cutting red tape on British business, and reasserting Britain’s place on the world stage are amongst the usual answers from the “Leavers” - those campaigning to leave the EU. What you are unlikely to hear are calls for an end to free trade with Europe, or an end to cooperation on common challenges such as terrorism and the refugee crisis.

On these key issues, the Leavers and the “Stayers”, those campaigning against Brexit, generally want the same benefits. Their main differing point is on the structures needed to deliver those benefits. The logical question at the heart of the Brexit debate should therefore be whether or not a supranational government is necessary to achieve what Britain desires from Europe. Yet the Brexit debate rarely centres on that question; neither the Leavers nor the Stayers would benefit if it did. 

The reason lies in the nature of Euroscepticism in Britain, which has deep historical roots. From the Protestant Reformation, to the defeat of Napoleon and later the Third Reich, the British national story of the last five hundred years has largely been a story of resistance against the prevailing powers in Europe.

The geography of Britain as an island country has also created a sense of separateness. Americans may think of Britain as part of Europe and Britons as Europeans, but in Britain these terms are used to refer to Continental Europe. Additionally, as a result of empire, Britons have a stronger cultural affinity with Australia, nine and a half thousand miles away, than with France, which is visible from the south coast of England on a clear day.

The combination of all of these elements is a determinately independent nature in Britain’s dealings with the EU, and a caution against surrendering too much sovereignty to Brussels. This is most apparent in Britain’s resistance to joining the single currency or the Schengen open borders area.

As a result, there is a base level of Euroscepticism even amongst the EU’s most vocal supporters. Stayers tend to preface their defence of EU membership with a criticism of the EU to establish their credentials. In the Prime Minister’s statement following his negotiations with the European Council last February, David Cameron found it necessary to say: “I do not love Brussels. I love Britain.”

As such, the Stayers would find themselves in a weak position if the debate turned to the question of whether a supranational government is necessary. That would require them to defend the principle of handing over sovereignty to an outside entity, which is not a vote-winner for the British public.

Instead, they have focused much of their argument on the potential problems that would emerge during a Brexit, such as devaluation of the pound, an exodus of large businesses to the Continent, and years of economic uncertainty. The essence of the message coming from the Stayers is that the EU isn’t perfect, but it is better than risking the unknown.

However, the question over supranationalism is not one that the Leavers are able to answer strongly either. This is because, for most Britons, it is a purely academic question. Immigration, healthcare and the economy are generally the top three issues concerning British voters. The latest Ipsos Mori poll found that only 20% of Britons consider the EU to be the most important issue facing Britain. And this is the highest level of concern that has been given to the EU in 13 years.

The EU is not a top political priority for Britons because its effect on British life is not obvious across society. The day-to-day benefits of EU membership are apparent to specific groups, such as the City of London financial sector, but not to the general public. Likewise it is select groups, such as fishermen, that experience a clear adverse impact of EU membership.

Britain is not Poland, where EU membership has had a very clear effect on national economic development. And Britain is not Greece, where EU membership has resulted in the imposition of unpopular austerity measures against the will of the national government.

When the Leavers argue that submission to a supranational government is surrendering too much national sovereignty, they usually point to the percentage of UK laws that have been handed down from Brussels – this has been variously estimated at between half and two-thirds of all legislation.

However, when these directives from Brussels are scrutinised, they are rarely strong enough to arouse widespread passion. EU regulation such as the requirement for houses to be built five kilometres away from heathland in order to stop cats from chasing birds may be petty, but they would hardly cause the Boston Tea Party.

This plays to the strength of the Stayers’ argument that Brexit would cause too many problems in return for relatively minor gains. And as a result, the Leavers are frequently criticised for exaggerating the impact of the EU on more concerning issues for voters, such as immigration, in order to arouse passions.

The Brexit debate is therefore unlikely to be settled over the issue of supranationalism, which is unfortunate given that this question is at the heart of the EU’s raison d’etre. Many, including the President of the US, have expressed fears that a Brexit could lead to the break-up of the EU. This is indeed a possibility, as the scepticism that many in Britain have with Brussels is felt across various member states to much stronger degrees. Yet the desires for free trade and European collaboration remain strong. Instead of a break up, a proper debate over the need and role for a supranational government could lead to radical reforms that may produce a more effective and mutually beneficial European alliance. It is a question that should not be avoided.

March 2016

On March 22 the Newseum played host to a report launch by Handelsblatt, the leading German financial and business daily.  Handelsblatt commissioned YouGov to undertake a poll in each G-20 country to ask voters a series of questions about their political outlook and attitudes so as to make educated comparisons between the twenty nations.   After the report was presented a lively question and answer session ensued on the study’s methodology and some of the more surprising, at least for a US audience, survey responses. 

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March 2016

When recently asked about his foreign policy advisors on Morning Joe, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump declined to name any names except his own. Trump’s willingness to go his own way and buck conventional wisdom has endeared him to his supporters, but his pronouncements have alarmed many experts, who fear that his policies would damage the national security of the United States.  His newest outburst regarding NATO is no exception. Last week, after declaring that law enforcement should patrol Muslim neighborhoods and that the U.S. should loosen its definition of torture, Trump derided NATO for being an irrelevant organization that is costing Washington “a fortune.”  At a time when security crises mandate a strong NATO presence in Europe, one might question if this is merely another publicity stunt to sustain the public’s attention in a lengthy election cycle. However, Trump’s comments on NATO fit into a recurring pattern and deserve serious scrutiny.

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February 2016

By Nancy Donaldson, Director of the Washington, D.C. office of the International Labor Organization, a specialized agency of the United Nations

Republished here from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel with permission.

Economic growth in the United States is expected to strengthen in 2016 for a third year in a row. What does this mean in terms of jobs? The economy is on the mend and labor market conditions are continuing to improve. The unemployment rate has fallen to 4.9% from its level of 8% in January 2013. At 15.7%, the youth unemployment rate is still high.

Despite a more encouraging picture in the United States, many women and men are working in low-paid jobs and too many people are still jobless. Income inequality continues to rise. Recent evidence suggests that weakening of labor market institutions (including low unionization rates) is strongly linked to the rise in income inequality in the developed economies. In the U.S., a principal source of inequality lies in the labor market, including wages.

On a global level, the International Labor Organization expects that worldwide unemployment will rise in both 2016 and 2017. In January, the ILO annual World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO) forecast reported total global unemployment at 197.1 million people — 27 million more than the pre-crisis level of 2007. Beyond these stark numbers, there is strong evidence that rising income inequality undermines economic growth and employment creation. Almost eight years after the global financial crisis, urgent action is needed to boost the number of decent work opportunities or we risk intensified social tensions.

The ILO is focused not only on job creation but also on decent jobs and the future of work. Today, many people are working in jobs that did not exist 20 years ago. Advances in technology have created and eliminated many jobs, and continues to change the way we work. The emerging "gig economy" includes "work on demand apps" generating workers who drive for Uber and other forms of "crowd work." These are new ways of finding work. New technology enables an employee in Milwaukee to work for an employer in New York or in London. This work can supplement income and create access to work that bypasses discrimination barriers in traditional job seeking.

There also are important issues that come with new forms of work. Policy-makers are carefully considering key questions such as who is an employee and who is an employer. How do basic labor protections such as safety and health, wages and hours and access to health and pension apply to workers in the new economy?

There is much evidence that well-designed labor market and social policies are essential for boosting economic growth and addressing the jobs crisis. If policy-makers tailor current and new policies to extend worker protections and promote new forms of work, communities also can use these tools to tackle inequality and unemployment. Today, a focused effort to strengthen global, federal and state policies promoting decent work is urgently needed.

Apprenticeship is one path to decent jobs for both adults and youths. It addresses skills gaps and labor market shortages and combines on-the-job training with classroom instruction that is often paid and creates a trained workforce ready to enter the workplace. This also benefits employers seeking a skilled workforce.

President Barack Obama has dedicated $175 million to an American Apprenticeship grant initiative that will help 46 public-private partnerships create more opportunities for both workers and employers to participate in apprenticeship programs. At the state level, Wisconsin supports apprenticeship programs with training for 2,500 high school students and incentives for business owners to participate. These state-led and federal programs should be ramped up to provide opportunities to more people, including those in disenfranchised communities.

The recent push in the United States to raise the minimum wage represents an important step toward tackling income inequality, but clearly more measures will be needed to reverse the inequality trend. This should include efforts to close the gender gap, address youth unemployment and inactivity, and integrate immigrant workers into the labor market.

There are no easy answers to fixing inequality, whether in education or employment on the global and local level. As we move into the future, inequality and discrimination must be tackled at the core of our efforts to broaden the decent work agenda and promote inclusive economic growth.

February 2016

Voices from street cafes to the corridors of government tell of Argentina’s rebirth—one that is energetically re-engaging the international community and developing plans to reform its economy so it works for the people of Argentina.  Bringing in a new era for Argentina will present many challenges for President Macri and his new team. That said, the early achievements demonstrate that Argentina is off to a very good start.

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February 2016

On January 16, riots erupted in several Tunisian districts with protesters shouting for “work, freedom, and dignity;” similar to demands made during the Jasmine Revolution.  The protests commenced after the suicide of a Kasserine youth who had learned that the Ministry of Education had removed his name from the list of possible hires, and continued for four days until authorities implemented a nightly curfew.  What was most disconcerting to Tunisian authorities was the rate at which the protests spread across the country, into nearby cities of Sidi Bouzid, Gafsa, and the capital, Tunis. Now in its fifth year, the Tunisian democratic experiment must include widespread economic improvements, especially in interior regions, to allay mounting unrest. 

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February 2016

As the European migrant crisis reached new heights last summer, much attention was given to the stress of countries on Europe’s southern flank—in particular Greece, which has processed the vast majority of incoming refugees from across the Mediterranean. Subsequently, the conversation was driven by central Europe: on the one hand by Germany, which spearheaded the continent’s open-door policy, and on the other hand by Hungary, which has resisted it.

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January 2016

2015 proved to be a turbulent year for Europe, as the continent was faced with a series of unexpected crises amid political discontent with the status quo in Brussels. Two deadly terrorist attacks in Paris bookended 2015, stoking populist fears and driving opposition to Angela Merkel’s open-door refugee policy. Pushback against the longstanding Schengen free-travel agreement and British threats to leave the EU have also frayed European solidarity at a time when it is needed more than ever.

None of these challenges will dissipate in 2016. In fact, the new year may prove even more contentious. Upcoming elections, referendums, and long-term political trends will do much to shape the future of Europe in the coming year. American leadership will also play a decisive role: on issues from NATO enlargement to the UK’s membership in the EU, a strong American commitment to a united Europe can help to undergird peace and stability.     

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January 2016

During his final State of the Union President Obama singled out redistricting as an issue plaguing US politics which he hopes to tackle during his last year in office.  In his address he said that, "we have to end the practice of drawing our congressional districts so that politicians can pick their voters, and not the other way around.” It is widely known that redistricting has created more “safe” congressional seats where members are unlikely to face a real challenge from outside their party leading to complacent members and to more political polarization since members have little need to appeal to voters from the opposite party in their district.

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