Tunisia Protest

February 2016

On January 16, riots erupted in several Tunisian districts with protesters shouting for “work, freedom, and dignity;” similar to demands made during the Jasmine Revolution.  The protests commenced after the suicide of a Kasserine youth who had learned that the Ministry of Education had removed his name from the list of possible hires, and continued for four days until authorities implemented a nightly curfew.  What was most disconcerting to Tunisian authorities was the rate at which the protests spread across the country, into nearby cities of Sidi Bouzid, Gafsa, and the capital, Tunis. Now in its fifth year, the Tunisian democratic experiment must include widespread economic improvements, especially in interior regions, to allay mounting unrest. 

Although Tunisia has made significant democratic gains through the transition of its political system since 2011 economic reforms have done little to promote job growth and employment.  A recent International Republican Institute poll found that only 36 percent of voters prefer an unstable and flawed democracy as opposed to the Ben Ali regime, this is down from 70 percent during the 2011 revolution.  Youth unemployment nearing 40 percent has increased young Tunisian’s outrage, which is concerning because young people helped overthrow the Ben Ali regime due to similar economic circumstances.

Though the new government has committed itself to reducing gender and age gaps in employment they remain noticeable, particularly in poorer interior regions like Kesserine.   During the Ben Ali regime these regions received less government investment and, as a result, still suffer from poor infrastructure and educational systems.  This has contributed to high unemployment rates; in Kasserine for example 17 percent of men and 38 percent of women remain unemployed, much higher than the national average of 15.3 percent.

In response to Tunisia’s difficulties, multilateral organizations, the US and EU have collaborated to boost foreign investment throughout Tunisia.  On February 17th, the IMF pledged to implement a $1.7 billion dollar plan to support the Tunisian economy.  This initiative complements the EU’s commitment of 500 million euros and France’s five-year plan of 1 billion euros.  These initiatives match the Tunisian government’s statements seeking increased foreign investment in impoverished districts.  It will be crucial for the EU, which is responsible for three-quarters of Tunisia’s exports, to remain committed to encouraging investment.

The 2015 terrorist attacks in Tunisia that targeted tourists in a beach resort in Sousse and the Bardo Museum further exacerbated economic tensions in the country.  A recent statistic released by the Tunisian authority’s shows that tourism, which employs 500,000 citizens, has plummeted 35 percent since 2015.

Security concerns in general have compounded the political and economic troubles in the country.  Tunisians comprise the largest segment of foreign ISIS fighters in Libya, totaling more than 6,000, and the instability in Libya has provided a fertile ground for the Tunisian ISIS-affiliate Ansar al-Sharia (AST) to recruit and operate. To deal with these threats, Tunisia has looked to the West for military assistance and intelligence sharing, as well as building a 125-mile border fence to limit the flow of arms and foreign fighters to AST.  The nation also provides support for the US-led military coalition in Libya.

The economic and security situation have engendered political challenges and hindered democratic consolidation.  Though the country has enjoyed a number of achievements such as the formation of an Islamic coalition troika government, the passage of a constitution, democratic elections and a peaceful transition of power, political issues persist. 

The secular ruling party, Nidaa Tounes (NT- the Voice of Tunisia) is in the midst of a leadership vacuum stemming from Beji Caid Essebsi’s ascension to the presidency in 2014. The party has split into two factions between the party’s Secretary General, Mohsen Mouzouk, and the president’s son, Hafedh Caid Essebsi, who is accused of seeking dynastic rule in the country.  On November 9th 32 pro-Marzouk MPs resigned from Parliament causing NT to lose its majority. The opposition party Ennahda is now in the majority with 69 seats while NT has 53.  Though the current political situation is making it difficult to implement a reform agenda it is hoped that a stronger opposition will ultimately increase democratization in the country.  

If Tunisia’s security, economic, and political challenges persist unabated the Arab Spring’s success story could compromised and Tunisia could become a haven for terrorist groups.  Consequently the West must continue supporting the Tunisian economy and security forces so as to enable Tunisia to remain a bastion of democracy in a turbulent region.