Global Elections Updates: Poland, Suriname, and Romania

Poland

Overview

On June 1, Poland held a presidential runoff, which saw Karol Nawrocki, a historian and independent candidate backed by Poland’s conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS) and American President Donald Trump, defeat Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski by a razor-thin margin. Trzaskowski, who campaigned on the platform of the pro-European Civic Coalition (KO), a member of Poland’s coalition government, led Nawrocki in the first round of elections by less than 2%. The close margins and reversal of outcomes from the first and second rounds of the election demonstrated the deep political divide among Polish citizens, which has been driven by the ongoing debate over whether Poland should continue its pro-European path or focus on pursuing a more independent and national political direction.

Results

In the second round of the election, Nawrocki won the presidency, securing a narrow margin of 50.89% to 49.11% over Trzaskowski. In contrast to previous elections, younger voters (aged 18- 39) strongly favored Nawrocki’s conservative agenda. Nawrocki is critical of European integration and opposes Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the EU. His platform highlights nationalist and Christian values that have and will continue to shape Poland’s decisions regarding abortion, migration, and LGBTQ rights. In response to Nawrocki’s victory, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk called a vote of confidence to reaffirm his government’s legitimacy and address internal divisions within the coalition he leads. On June 11, Tusk survived the vote of confidence in the Polish Sejm with 243 votes in favor and 210 against, reinforcing his position to govern and the unity of his coalition.

Outlook

On August 6, Karol Nawrocki will assume the presidency, which is expected to challenge Tusk’s governing coalition and its pro-European agenda due to their opposing ideological views. The president has veto power to block Tusk’s legislative reforms, regardless of the governing coalition’s majority in Parliament. Given the significant influence of the presidential role on defense and foreign policies, Nawrocki is likely to impact Poland’s current cooperation with Brussels and its stance on key EU decisions. He will pursue a more nationalist approach to fulfill his campaign promises of defending Poland’s sovereignty from the European Union.

Any split with Poland could jeopardize EU defense and economic policy, given Poland’s significant military presence, its status as one of the largest defense spenders in the EU, and its having one of the fastest-growing economies in Europe. While Nawrocki is expected to continue to support strengthening Poland’s defense capabilities, Nawrocki’s close alliance with the Trump Administration in Washington, and Nawrocki’s socially conservative stances, increase the chances of Nawrocki coming into conflict with Prime Minister Tusk as well as EU officials in Brussels. Already, Nawrocki’s victory was welcomed by far-right European leaders, including Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, and Marine Le Pen.

The narrow electoral outcome of the June 1 runoff demonstrates a growing divide in Poland between supporters of EU multilateralism and advocates of national sovereignty. In the coming months, the course of Poland’s government will depend on Prime Minister Tusk’s ability to govern effectively alongside President Nawrocki despite their ideological differences.

Suriname

Overview

Suriname held general elections on May 25^th to elect members to Suriname’s 51-member Parliament, the National Assembly. The elections are the first general elections to be held since Suriname adopted a one-district, proportional representation electoral system in 2023. The election was competitive, with the National Democratic Party (NDP)—the party of the late Dési Bouterse, the leader of the military junta that governed Suriname from 1980 to 1987—securing 18 seats. The ruling Progressive Reform Party (VHP), a center-left party initially conceived to represent Indo-Surinamese interests and the party of Suriname’s president, Chan Santokhi, secured 17 votes. The results of the election are significant, as Parliament is tasked with electing Suriname’s President, which requires the support of a two-thirds majority in Parliament.

Results

The NDP, led by Jennifer Geerlings-Simons—the party’s first leader other than Bouterse—fared particularly well, securing two additional seats in parliament. In contrast, the VHP lost three seats. The only other party to gain seats in the election was the National Party of Suriname (NPS), which secured three additional seats, bringing its total to six. NPS, which has led Suriname in the past, is primarily supported by the Afro-Surinamese population. The General Liberation and Development Party (ABOP), led by Ronnie Brunswijk—a former rebel leader and businessman popular among Suriname’s Maroon community—lost two seats and now holds six. The Brotherhood and Unity in Politics (BEP), another party representing Maroon interests, lost one of its two seats. The Pertjajah Luhur (PJ) party, which means the nation’s Javanese Surinamese population, retained its two seats.

Outlook

On June 1^st, following negotiations, NDP, ABOP, NPS, BJ, and Alternative 2020 ratified an agreement to form a governing coalition expected to control 34 seats in Parliament—an exact two-thirds majority. The new parliament is scheduled to be installed on June 30^th, following the certification of election results by the Independent Electoral Board (OKB). NDP leader Jennifer Geerlings-Simons is expected to be elected by Parliament to serve as Suriname’s first female president.

The ascendancy of Geerlings-Simons and the NDP comes at a pivotal time, as Suriname is set to benefit from several significant oil and gas discoveries, including a large-scale project involving French and American investment and Suriname’s State oil company. If managed effectively, these discoveries could provide a significant economic boost, similar to what neighboring Guyana has experienced in the last decade. The Trump Administration’s focus on Latin America as a key battleground for countering Chinese influence, combined with the recent election of Albert Ramdin—of the outgoing VHP-led government—as Secretary General of the Organization of American States, may offer further opportunities for the new government to attract U.S. and regional investment.

While Geerlings-Simons and the NDP have promised to honor contracts established by the previous government, continue developing fossil fuel resources, and ensure revenues are shared with Surinamese citizens, the new governing coalition’s diverse economic and ethnic composition could pose governance challenges if not effectively managed during this critical period of national development.

Romania

Overview

In May, Romania held one of its most significant presidential elections, with major implications for the country’s future geopolitical orientation. The election was held to resolve the political turmoil that followed the Supreme Court’s overturning of the results of November’s presidential election in Romania, amid allegations of Russian interference. In the first round of May’s rerun of elections, the ultranationalist candidate and Trump admirer, George Simion, achieved a landslide victory, securing 40% of the vote, nearly twice the amount received by the leading contender, Nicuşor Dan, the Mayor of Bucharest and a pro-EU independent candidate. Simion’s initial victory in the first round prompted the resignation of Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu. Despite Simion’s initial success, Dan defeated Simion in the second round following a surge in voter turnout. As President, Dan will be responsible for appointing a new Prime Minister.

Results

On May 18, centrist candidate Nicuşor Dan won the presidential election with 54% of the vote against 46% of George Simion. The televised debate between Simion and Dan, held before the runoff election, helped Dan rebound in voter preferences, especially among urban voters, women, and ethnic minorities. Dan stressed that Romania’s territorial integrity depends on Ukraine’s success in the war against Russia. Simion conceded defeat but alleged fraud and requested the annulment of the election before the Romanian Constitutional Court, which rejected his claim. Simion expressed his interest in continuing to advance conservative and nationalist values in Europe. Nicuşor Dan took office on May 26 as Romania’s 6^th president.

Outlook

President Nicuşor Dan has initiated the formation of a pro-European governing coalition comprising liberal parties, including the left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), the National Liberal Party (PNL), the Save Romania Union (USR), and the ethnic Hungarian Democratic Union of Romania (UDMR). The president also nominated Ilie Bolojan, interim president and leader of the PNL, as Prime Minister. Bolojan is expected to be sworn in once the coalition negotiations are concluded. Coalition talks have stalled because parties have been unable to agree to the demands of the PSD, the largest party in parliament, which include securing seven key ministries and sharing the Prime Minister position in a rotational government, starting with the PNL until 2027, followed by the PSD. Coalition members are also divided over the EU-mandated spending plan, with PSD advocating for tax increases and USR favoring public spending cuts. In the coming days, President Nicuşor Dan and Ilie Bolojan will urge liberal parties to reach an agreement to break the deadlock ahead of Brussels’ June 30 deadline to submit the budget deficit plan.