Global Elections Update: Georgia, Puerto Rico, Bulgaria, Lithuania & Moldova

Georgia

Overview. The Republic of Georgia held parliamentary elections on October 26^th.  They were held in the wake of the Georgian government’s passage of a “Foreign Agents Law” in August, which sparked widespread protests and condemnation from Georgia’s Western partners. The law, which is modeled on a similar Russian law passed in 2012, has imperiled the Georgian people’s aspirations of joining the European Union and has strained the nation’s relationships with its western partners. The incumbent Georgian Dream party – which was founded and continues to be beholden to Georgia’s richest man, Bidzina Ivanishvili – claimed to have won elections. Georgian opposition parties and some international observers have alleged mass manipulation of the vote through various means.

Results. Georgian Dream received 53.9% of the vote while four other joint ticket parties received 11%, 10.17%, 8.81%, and 7.77%.  Another two parties failed to pass the 5% threshold required to hold seats in parliament. Voter turnout was around 59%, which was relatively high, but less than the record for voter turnout set in 2012. Despite its declining popularity, Georgian Dream received roughly 190,000 more votes than it did in 2020’s parliamentary elections. The reported results are inconsistent with exit polls conducted by two independent pollsters, Edison Research and HarrisX, that predicted a victory by the opposition.

Outlook. Georgian opposition parties have responded to the election results by calling for protests, for opposition MPs to boycott parliament, and for citizens and civil society groups to collect evidence of voter fraud. Georgia’s pro-Western President and unofficial leader of the opposition, Salome Zurabishvili, this week outlined a path forward, which comprised holding new elections and maintaining the parliament’s pre-election configuration of parliament. Meanwhile, the patience of Georgia’s western partners appears to be fading. On October 30^th, the EU published its enlargement report, which stated that, “[The EU] Commission will not be in a position to consider recommending opening negotiations with Georgia.”

The response from the US has been relatively muted.  Following the passage of the Foreign Agents Law, the Biden Administration imposed sanctions on several Georgian government officials, and bipartisan legislation was introduced in both the House and Senate authorizing additional sanctions and a comprehensive review of U.S. relations with Georgia.  However, given the re-election of Donald Trump, who has made it clear that he intends to recalibrate US relations with Russia, it remains to be seen how the incoming Administration will respond to actions by Georgian Dream.

Puerto Rico

Overview. Puerto Rico held general elections on November 5, 2024, alongside the U.S. elections. Voters elected the governor, resident commissioner, members of the Puerto Rico House of Representatives and Senate, and mayors for all 78 municipalities. Officials will serve from January 2, 2025 to January 2, 2029. A non-binding status referendum and a straw poll for the U.S. presidential election were also conducted.

Historically dominated by the New Progressive Party (PNP) and the Popular Democratic Party (PPD), Puerto Rican politics faced a significant shift this election. The coalition of the Puerto Rican Independence Party (PIP) and the Citizen Victory Movement (MVC), known as the Alianza de País, capitalized on public discontent and calls for change. This coalition gained traction with strong support for gubernatorial candidate Juan Dalmau (PIP), who emphasized workers’ rights, environmental protection, and decolonization, while opposing the privatization of essential services.

Results. Puerto Rico’s simple majority electoral system requires only that candidates receive the most votes, not over 50%, to win.

• Governor: Jenniffer González (PNP) was elected with 39.45% of the vote (438,183 votes), narrowly defeating Juan Dalmau (PIP), who garnered 32.78% (364,145 votes).
• Resident Commissioner: Pablo Hernández (PPD) secured the position with 44.55% (482,938 votes), surpassing William Villafañe (PNP), who received 35.02% (379,624 votes).
• Mayors: Of the 78 municipalities, 45 of the elected mayors were from the PPD and 33 from the PNP.
• Status Referendum: 56.82% voted in favor of statehood, 30.85% supported independence, and 12.33% chose to maintain the current territorial status.
• Straw Poll: The symbolic U.S. presidential straw poll saw 73.46% support for the Harris-Walz ticket, while 26.54% favored Trump-Vance. Though non-binding, these results highlight Puerto Rican residents’ political leanings in U.S. national politics.

On Monday, November 11, 2024, the Puerto Rico State Elections Commission (CEEPR) announced that the general vote count for the general elections would begin on Tuesday, November 12^th, 2024. This process is essential to ensure the accuracy and transparency of the election results, confirming the votes cast, and addressing any discrepancies that may have arisen during the preliminary count.

Outlook. The results indicate that while the traditional parties retained power, the Alianza disrupted the status quo, signaling a potential realignment in Puerto Rican politics. Dalmau’s second-place finish demonstrated growing support for alternative platforms, with his campaign addressing deep-rooted issues such as corruption, economic inequality, and mismanagement of public funds. High-profile endorsements from cultural figures helped amplify the coalition’s message, uniting a broad base of disenchanted voters.

Governor-elect González, who is Puerto Rico’s current Resident Commissioner, inherits a deeply troubled Puerto Rico, beset by economic, energy, health, and education crises. The aftermath of Hurricane María (2017), political scandals, and the COVID-19 pandemic have eroded public trust in government institutions and political leaders. González, who identifies as Republican and who endorsed Donald Trump, faces skepticism over her ability to lead effectively. Her tenure is expected to be under intense scrutiny, particularly from the Alianza (and their electorate), which has vowed to hold her administration accountable.

The challenges ahead are immense. González must address widespread corruption, modernize infrastructure, and restore public services if she hopes to maintain the PNP’s influence. Many see this term as a critical turning point; failure to deliver could further empower the Alianza and accelerate the decline of bipartisan dominance.

The 2024 elections underscored the growing demand for systemic change in Puerto Rico. The Alianza de País reminded voters that alternatives to the PNP and PPD exist and can challenge the established political order. If current conditions persist, the 2028 elections could see even greater gains for movements advocating transformation, potentially reshaping Puerto Rico’s political future forever.

Bulgaria

Overview. Bulgaria held snap parliamentary elections on October 25. The elections are the seventh set of parliamentary elections held in Bulgaria in the past four years. With the results broadly mirroring those of the most recent elections in June, the results continue to cast doubt on the ability of Bulgaria to lift itself from the country’s protracted political deadlock.

Results. In order of the largest to smallest, the center-right GERB party received 26.08% of the vote, the reformist coalition We Continue the Change / Democratic Bulgaria Received (PP-DM), and the far-right, ultranationalist Revival party received 14.76%. Voter turnout was 37.5% which is slightly higher than the turnout in June’s elections, but still limited. Six other parties received enough votes to enter Bulgaria’s next parliament, including a new far-right ultranationalist party called Moral, Unity Honor. Around 30% of the vote went to populist parties and 21% went to pro-Russian parties.

Outlook. GERB and its leader Boyko Borrisov will need to form a coalition government comprising at least half of the 240 members of Bulgaria’s parliament. If they do not, then it is likely that another round of snap elections will be called, further prolonging the country’s deadlock. With many parties hesitant to partner with GERB and Borrisov over his alleged ties to corruption and crime, the chances that Borrisov manages to form a lasting government appear slim. The limited willingness by parties to partner with Borrisov and GERB raises the prospect that GERB may seek to partner with the Western-sanctioned oligarch Deylan Peevski and the ethnic-Turkish Movement for Right and Freedoms (MRF) Party, which he is part of. Given Borrisov and Peevski’s reputation for corruption, a potential governing coalition led by the two would likely run counter to the interests of Washington and Brussels. Additionally, with EU funding running dry over Bulgaria’s failure to meet EU-mandated reforms and the number of pro-Russian and populist political interest in parliament growing, Bulgaria’s continued integration with Europe appears to be increasingly at risk of backsliding.

Lithuania

Overview. In October 2024, Lithuania held parliamentary elections to allocate 141 seats for a 4-year term starting in November. The Lithuanian legislative body, Seimas, comprises 141 members of parliament, half of them elected through a two-round majority, while the other half are chosen through proportional representation.

Results. The first round took place on October 13, resulting in a close competition between the center-left Social Democratic Party (LSDP) and the ruling Homeland Union, a center-right Christian democrat party. The LSDP won 19% of the vote, representing 18 seats in Parliament, while the Homeland Union obtained 18% of the vote and 17 seats. In third place was the Dawn of Nemunas, a nationalist and populist party, with 14 seats, followed by the Union of Democrats “For Lithuania” (DSVL) and the Liberals Movement with 8 and 6 seats, respectively.

On October 27, the second round determined the composition of the next government for the period 2024- 2028. The LSDP confirmed its victory, securing 52 seats compared to the 28 seats of the Homeland Union Party. Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, leader of the LSDP, secured a coalition government by cooperating with the Union of Democrats “For Lithuania” (DSVL) and the Daen of Nemunas (PPNA). Together, the coalition gathers the majority with 86 seats in parliament. However, the alliance with the PPNA sparked controversy and opposition from domestic NGOs, foreign politicians from the United States, Germany, Poland and Israel. PPNA’s founder and leader, Remigijus Zemaitaitas, is currently standing trial accused of antisemitic and anti-Israel statements and resigned from Parliament in April, ahead of an impeachment vote.

Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, known for her extensive experience and popularity, was seen as a potential candidate for prime minister. However, she declined to run, citing her age and health and will instead continue serving as a member of the European Parliament. Gintautas Paluckas, former leader of the party from 2017 to 2021, became the candidate for prime minister to take power in December.

On November 14^th, the new members of parliament were sworn in, during the inauguration of the 14^th Seimas, amidst massive protests against the inclusion of the Dawn of Nemunas in the ruling coalition. During the ceremony, Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė returned the government’s mandate to the president Gitanas Nausėda, who was re-elected for a second term in July 2024. The three-party coalition (LSDP, DSVL, and PPNA) have agreed to nominate Saulius Skvernelis, as Speaker of the Parliament. Skvernelis, founder and leader of the Democratic Union “For Lithuania”(DSVL), previously served as Prime Minister between 2016 and 2020, and Minister of the Interior from 2014 to 2016.

Outlook. The new government led by the Social Democratic Party (LSDP) is expected to elect deputy speakers and confirm the composition of the Board and Conference of Chairs. The former Prime Minister’s cabinet will remain in office until the government approves its program and appoints  new ministers in December. Despite the controversy surrounding the coalition with the Dawn of Nemunas party, the LSDP will maintain its alliance and has sought to ease concerns by stating that there is no place for antisemitism in its government. Yet, some sectors still think that the Dawn of Nemunas could influence politics especially because it will lead three of the 14 ministries, including the Justice Ministry. The LSDP pledge to implement a tax reform to reduce pressures on the lower and middle while increasing taxes on the wealthier population. The party characterizes by its strong anti-Russia stance and its commitment to increasing the defense budget to 3% of the country’s GDP, an initiative that was popularly accepted during the campaign.

Moldova

Overview. On October 20, Moldova held presidential elections with a runoff on November 3, as well as a nationwide referendum to enshrine its commitment to joining the EU in the country’s constitution. The election was deemed a pivotal choice between the West and Russia and a test of the citizens’ willingness to advance Moldova’s accession to the EU. The referendum was held amidst allegations of Russian interference, including vote-buying schemes and disinformation.

In the 2024 presidential election, President Maia Sandu, founder of the pro-European and liberal Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), ran for a second 4-year term. Her opponents were former Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo, from the pro-Russian Socialist Party (PSRM) and Renato Usatîi, president of the left-wing Republican People’s Party, currently known as Our Party. Alexandr Stoianoglo opposed the constitutional amendment and declared that he would seek a balanced foreign agenda, strengthening ties with the European Union, the United States, Russia, and China. He also pledged to resume the supply of low-cost Russian gas.

Results. The election on October 20 resulted in incumbent President Maia Sandu winning 42% of the vote, followed by Alexandr Stoianoglo and Renato Usatîi with 26% and 13.7% respectively. However, Moldova’s electoral system requires an absolute majority—over 50% of the total vote—for a candidate to be elected president. A second round between the top candidates was scheduled for November 3, resulting in the re-election of President Maia Sandu with 55.4% of the vote against 44.65% of Alexandr Stoianoglo.

President Sandu strongly supports Moldova’s accession to the EU and advocates for reducing the country’s economic dependence on Russia. She previously served as Prime Minister and Minister of Education. In the 2020 presidential election, she won a landslide victory against the pro-Russian Igor Dodon, becoming the first female president of Moldova.

The referendum took place on the same day as the first round of the presidential election, on October 20. It was proposed as a democratic response to the nation’s deep polarization regarding citizens’ preferences on maintaining close ties with Russia or embarking on the accession process to the European Union. The constitutional amendment would make it harder for future governments to shift away from the country’s pro-European path.

Unlike opinion poll predictions, the referendum resulted in a close outcome of 50.46% in favor of EU membership and 49.54% against. According to analysts, Moldovans living abroad were key for the “yes” option, giving a last-moment push. However, vote buying, disinformation, and intimidation by Russia undermined a free and democratic process, resulting in a closely contested outcome. The voter turnout of 50% exceeded the one-third (33.33%) requirement to be considered binding. Consequently, the constitutional reform was approved.

Around 2.8 million ballots in five minority languages were issued for both the referendum and the presidential election. 15 parties registered to participate in the referendum campaign, of which 13 were in favor of the “yes” option.

Outlook. After the presidential election, U.S. president Joe Biden congratulated president Maia Sandu on her re-election and praised the citizen’s choice for a secure, prosperous and democratic Moldova. Additionally, Joseph Borrel, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs, reaffirmed Europe’s commitment to cooperate with Sandu’s government and promote further reforms towards European integration. On December 24, President Maia Sandu will be sworn in for her second mandate. Her re-election is seen as a continuation of her policies aimed at strengthening Moldova’s ties with the European Union and implementing domestic reforms to combat corruption and enhance governance.