Global Election Updates: Ireland, Netherlands, Argentina

Ireland

Overview  

On October 24, the Republic of Ireland elected Catherine Connolly, an independent member of the Dáil Éirean – the lower house of Parliament – as President for a seven-year term. Connolly won in a landslide, securing 63% of the vote in the first round and defeating candidates from the long-dominant center-right Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil parties. She received the backing of several left-of-center parties, including Sinn Féin, Labour, and the Social Democrats.

She succeeds Michael D. Higgins, who served from 2011 to 2025. Ireland, a parliamentary representative democracy and EU member state, uses a ranked-choice voting system, which in this election saw a record 13% of ballots spoiled – largely in protest of the country’s restrictive constitutional rules for nominating presidential candidates. Under the Constitution, a candidate must be the sitting president and up for reelection, be nominated by 20 Teachta Dála (TDs) – members of the Dáil Éireann – and 60 Senators, or receive endorsements from at least four local authorities.

Outlook

Because the Irish presidency is largely ceremonial, Connolly’s election is widely viewed as a rebuke of the governing Fine Gael–Fianna Fáil coalition and public frustration with the lack of reform to the presidential nomination process. With limited formal powers, Connolly will likely focus on elevating issues where she diverges from the government.

A noted pacifist, she has been outspoken on housing, social justice, abortion rights, and same-sex marriage, and has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s military operations in Gaza. Connolly has also criticized Ireland’s membership in the European Union and relationship with NATO, advocating for continued military neutrality, and has voiced opposition to EU plans to boost defense spending. This comes in advance of Ireland’s accession to the Presidency of the EU in July 2026. Connolly is next up for reelection in 2032, while parliamentary elections must take place by 2030.

Argentina

Overview 

On October 26, Argentina held legislative elections to elect 127 deputies and 24 senators to the National Congress. Under Argentina’s bicameral legislative system, the Chamber of Deputies renews nearly half its seats every two years, while the Senate renews one-third of its members. President Javier Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza (LLA), declared victory with 40% of the vote, securing 64 deputies and 13 senators. In second place, the left-wing party Fuerza Patria, led by former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, won 31% of the vote, retaining nearly the same number of seats with 44 deputies and 7 senators.

The 2025 midterm elections were a decisive victory for President Milei, despite political and corruption-related issues that had hurt his popularity in recent months. LLA’s strong performance is partly explained by its results in the province of Buenos Aires, a Peronist stronghold that for about 40% of the national electorate. Additionally, just days before the election, the Trump administration granted President Milei a US$20 billion currency swap line, helping stabilize the Argentine peso and strengthen his party’s position in the midterms.

Outlook 

After the election, the composition of the National Congress reflects that the ruling party, LLA, holds 93 of the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 20 of the 72 seats in the Senate, while the Peronist party Fuerza Patria retains greater influence with 97 deputies and 28 senators. Even though the ruling party fell short of achieving a majority in the Chamber of Deputies (129 seats), it secured one-third of the chamber, giving it veto power over opposition bills. LLA will need to build coalitions with smaller parties in order to advance its pension, tax, and labor reforms. These potential allies include the recently created Provincias Unidas, and Propuesta Republicana (PRO), led by former president Mauricio Macri.

The ruling party will also need to address growing voter disillusionment with existing political options and fatigue with strict austerity measures – sentiments reflected in the 2025 election’s low turnout of 32%, the lowest in decades.

The Netherlands

Overview

On October 29, the Netherlands held a snap election following the withdrawal of the Party for Freedom (PVV) from the coalition government of Prime Minister Dick Schoof in June 2025 and its subsequent collapse. The States General of the Netherlands is a bicameral legislature composed of the Senate and the House of Representatives, elected to four-year terms. However, anticipated elections are held when the House of Representatives is dissolved. The 2025 election aimed to end two years of political deadlock and renew the 150 members of the House of Representatives, but the outcome shows a highly polarized society.

Among the 15 competing parties, the center-left Democrats ‘66 (D66) and the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), with ideologically opposed platforms, each won 26 seats in the House of Representatives, with 16.9% and 16.7% of the vote, respectively. Despite the narrow margin, D66 leader Rob Jetten is set to become Prime Minister if he can form a coalition, in line with constitutional provisions. Overall, all parties that were members of the previous Schoof cabinet (PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC) lost seats in the House.

Outlook

D66’s victory and the likely scenario that its leader, Rob Jetten, will become the country’s next prime minister is a relief for the European Union, which has continued to contend with the rise of far-right political movements throughout the bloc. Rob Jetten, a pro-European liberal, defeated far-right populist Geert Wilders of the PVV and is expected to restore the Netherlands’ historic role as a leader within the EU.

It remains to be seen whether Jetten can form a coalition and ensure political stability. His biggest challenge is to bring together parties with divided views, including the liberal right and the socialist and environmentalist left, or partner with around 10 smaller parties in a deeply fragmented parliament. Jetten is negotiating with Frans Timmerman, the pro-European leader of the GroenLinks-Labor party (GL-PvdA), which secured 20 seats in the House. However, he needs at least 76 seats to achieve the majority. Incumbent Prime Minister Dick Schoof is skeptical that a coalition will be formed by Christmas, but if that happens, the 38-year-old leader, Rob Jetten, will become the youngest Prime Minister in the country’s history.