France Political Update: France’s not-so-new Prime Minister

After only 90 days in office, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier tendered his resignation to President Macron on December 5, 2024. His proposed cost-cutting Social Security Budget bill lost Barnier a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly, which led to the collapse of the government and solidified the country’s deepening political turmoil. Following much speculation and the ceremonies marking the reopening of Notre Dame, Macron appointed centrist ally François Bayrou as France’s fourth prime minister in the space of a year. The French president has now tasked Bayrou with forming a government “of general interest” to address the unprecedented political gridlock in which France finds itself.

Anatomy of a fall

Back in September, Barnier’s appointment had followed a snap election called by Macron in the summer. The election had split France’s parliament into three factions, none of which had a majority. For all his much-vaunted negotiation skills, Barnier proved unable to solve this three-body equation. Unable to muster the requisite parliamentarian majority behind his Budget bill, he decided to use Article 49-3 of the Constitution, which bypasses a parliamentary vote but exposes the government to a no-confidence vote. In retaliation, the two thirds of the National Assembly, which did not support his minority coalition, voted to unseat him. Barnier’s concessions to the far right after some savvy blackmail by Marine Le Pen were not deemed enough for her party to abstain from voting out his administration.

In a televised interview on December 6, Macron praised Barnier for his “work, dedication, and pugnacity” and stood by his choice, insisting that Barnier had managed to unite factions from the Republican right and centrist forces. Rather than take his share of the blame, Macron attributed Barnier’s failure to the “anti-republican” alliance of the far-right and “far-left”. The French president accused his competitors of prioritizing political chaos and preparing for the 2027 presidential election rather than focusing on the French people. Macron also reaffirmed that he would not resign, pledging once again to complete his term, which ends in 2027. 

The revenge of a centrist

François Bayrou, leader of the centrist MoDem party, has been a prominent figure in French politics for decades, and a close Macron-ally since 2017. While François Bayrou ran in three presidential elections – in 2002, 2007 and 2012 – he sat out the 2017 race, opting instead for an alliance with Emmanuel Macron, with whom he shared a strong attachment to Europe and a desire to avoid governing from either the left or the right. Bayrou gave Macron early and decisive support, subsequently becoming a pillar of the presidential camp. Following Macron’s first victory in 2017, Bayrou was appointed Minister for Justice. However, his implication in an affair of suspected fictitious employment of parliamentary assistants led to his early resignation in June 2017, barely a month after taking office. Although he’s been personally acquitted in February 2024, the prosecutor appealed this decision.

In the course of his storied career, Bayrou has held almost every available political office, including Minister of Education from 1993 until 1997 and Member of the European Parliament from 1999 until 2002. Since 2014, he has been the mayor of the city of Pau in the southwest of France, a position he intends to keep in order to remain connected to the field. In addition, as Macron-appointed Planning High Commissioner since 2020, Bayrou has been responsible for coordinating the prospective work carried out on behalf of the State. The lack of enforcement of the body’s recommendations has led to persistent questions about its usefulness. His nomination as Prime Minister was hard-fought, as media reports indicate that Bayrou had to leverage his influence and threaten to leave the coalition in order to overcome Macron’s strong reservations about appointing him.

A fixture of French politics since the 1990s, Bayrou’s presidential ambitions for 2027 are an open secret. The historical centrist is a polarizing figure whose appointment has drawn criticism from both the left and the right. Socialist leader Olivier Faure dismissed his nomination as a mere “continuation” of Macron’s policies. Meanwhile, Bayrou’s strained relationship with influential conservative figures like former President Nicolas Sarkozy is likely to be a challenge as he works to create viable political alliances.

Avoiding a no-confidence vote

Bayrou’s immediate challenge is forming a government that can survive a no-confidence vote in the deeply divided parliament while finalizing a 2025 budget to stabilize the economy. At the handover ceremony with Barnier, Bayrou acknowledged the daunting task ahead, referring to the budget deficit, now at 6.1% of GDP, as a “Himalayan” challenge, particularly after Moody’s downgraded France’s credit rating on the evening of Bayrou’s appointment, from an Aa2 to an Aa3.

Bayrou has stressed the need for “reconciliation” and appears inclined to extend his coalition more to the left, contrasting with his predecessor’s strategy of courting the far-right. Consultations with political groups are underway, with the new Prime Minister aiming to appoint his government before Christmas. In the meantime, Barnier’s ministers remain in place to manage current affairs.

Political parties have begun staking out their positions. The far-right National Rally, led by Jordan Bardella, has signaled it will not immediately support no-confidence votes. However, the party maintains red lines on tax increases, social security cuts, and pensioner protections. As for Laurent Wauquiez, leader of the right-wing Les Republicains party, he will request a new meeting with the Prime Minister, to decide whether or not his party should remain in the government. The Socialist Party, on its part, has refused to join the government while also stating it would not preemptively support no-confidence votes.

However, the Socialist leader at the National Assembly made such a no-censorship agreement conditional upon the new government’s conduct. In particular, he insisted that Bayrou’s administration refrain from using Article 49-3, avoid tying itself to the far right, review last year’s still overwhelmingly unpopular pension reform, and commit to involve civil society in its decision-making process. The Communist Party and Ecologists have adopted a similar stance, emphasizing their demands for ecological policies and tax justice while opposing the use of Article 49-3. Further to the left, France Unbowed has declared it intends to censure Bayrou, with firebrand leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon portraying his appointment as “another insult to democracy.”

Adopting a budget

In this fractured landscape, Bayrou’s top priority is passing a new budget and Social Security bill for 2025. Michel Barnier’s defeat was caused by his attempts to address France’s mounting deficit, making this task very sensitive politically. To keep government operational and avoid a shutdown, a transitional bill was passed, allowing tax collection and prolonging the 2024 budget until the new bill is approved by Parliament.

Bayrou’s government’s longevity will rely on his ability to find compromises and build circumstantial alliances. Concessions will have to be offered to both the left and the right, and his leadership will be tested in addressing these demands without alienating Macron’s centrist bloc. The broader question of whether someone with Bayrou’s experience can stabilize French politics or whether his tenure will merely mark yet another step in the country’s deepening turmoil.

Conclusion

François Bayrou’s appointment represents Macron’s latest attempt to navigate France’s fractured political landscape. While the new prime minister brings significant experience and political weight to the role, the challenges he faces – from assembling a viable coalition to passing the 2025 budget – are immense. Whether he can succeed where his predecessor failed, and to do so before the June 2025 deadline that will allow Macron to once again dissolve Parliament, remains to be seen.