France Political Turmoil and Budget Battles Ahead

Lecornu’s Rise, Fall, and Return

The past few weeks of political turmoil in France have drawn strong reactions across the European and international press. “The political crisis engulfing France has descended into theatre of the absurd,” blasted Politico. “Such disorder has never been seen since the creation of the Fifth Republic in 1958,” summed up Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. “His brief tenure makes Liz Truss’s look like a model of longevity,” quipped The Independent. Spain’s La Razón referred to “a new political vacuum amid a parliamentary deadlock and mounting social and economic pressures.”Meanwhile, CNN noted that “Lecornu’s resignation underscores the paralysis that has gripped France” since the legislative elections.

A whirlwind start

On September 9, 2025, Sébastien Lecornu, former Armed Forces Minister (2022–2025) and a close ally of President Emmanuel Macron, was appointed Prime Minister at the age of 39. He succeeded François Bayrou, who had resigned after losing a confidence vote in the National Assembly the day before.

President Macron tasked Lecornu with consulting parliamentary forces to adopt a budget for the nation and forge agreements needed for decisions in the coming months. Lecornu promised a genuine break with the past governments, “both in substance and style”.

However, on October 5, 2025, after days of negotiations, he appointed a government that included numerous former ministers, therefore failing to deliver on his promise of a « real break ». In particular, the appointment of former Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire – who held this position for seven years until 2024 and who is closely associated with France’s public debt by the political oppositions – returning as Armed Forces Minister, sparked outrage in political ranks. In particular, it led the right-wing political group Les Républicains, which had until now been part of the government’s “central block”, to question their continued participation in the government, with debt reduction being one of the group’s top priorities.

Faced with the backlash, Lecornu resigned after only 27 days in office, a resignation accepted by Macron. Yet the President still tasked him, as caretaker Prime Minister, with leading final negotiations to appoint a new government. The so-called “warrior-monk” completed his mission, and on October 10, Macron reappointed him, not without surprise. Two days later, Lecornu unveiled his (second!) government—a blend of civil society figures and experienced political profiles.

Policy speech and pension reform

On October 14, Lecornu delivered the customary policy statement to Parliament, outlining his government’s orientations and priorities. His absolute priority is providing a budget for France. He announced the suspension of the contentious 2023 pension reform, a concession demanded by the Socialist group to avoid a no-confidence vote.

A few days later, the Prime Minister narrowly avoided government collapse on October 16, when the National Assembly rejected two no-confidence motions tabled by the radical-left La France Insoumise and the far-right National Rally. Considering that its requests had been answered by the Prime Minister, the Socialist Party abstained on the La France Insoumise motion (which was the most likely to succeed), thereby preserving the fragile government — for now.

Navigating the 2026 Budget Storm

Despite this temporary stability, Lecornu faces a daunting challenge: steering the 2026 general and health budgets through a deeply divided Parliament. With fewer than 210 seats out of 577, the government must negotiate across party lines to secure the 289 votes needed for approval.

During his October 14 speech, Lecornu pledged not to use Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the government to pass a law without a vote. This means the 2026 budgets must be approved by a deeply fractured Assembly—a task that seems nearly impossible given the starkly opposing positions and visions of the political groups. Failure to reach consensus could lead to legislative gridlock.

Looking ahead

The difficulties aren’t over. The debate on the budget is just beginning, and on October 17, credit rating agency S&P downgraded France’s rating from AA− to A+, citing political instability and doubts over the government’s fiscal capacity. This underscores the challenge of restoring investor confidence amid ongoing turmoil.

Moreover, beyond the budget, a deeper consequence is emerging. This political crisis has shaken France to its core, deepening public distrust in political leaders, fueling skepticism, and reinforcing a sense that democracy itself is faltering – a worrying trend as the country heads toward the 2027 presidential election.