U.S. Presidential Race Update: Unpacking the Political Landscape

No doubt everyone has read about the attempted assassination of former President Trump, calls from Democrats in Congress and donors for President Biden to withdraw from his re-election bid, former President Trump’s decision to name Senator J.D. Vance as his Vice-Presidential running mate, and the longest acceptance speech of any Presidential nominee!

What more could we add to an emotionally exhausting political month that began with the earliest Presidential debate in history, a debate that put many of these events in motion because of President Biden’s poor performance.

Perhaps talking about what may happen next?

Vice President Kamala Harris has assembled the necessary number of delegates to be nominated for president by the Democratic Party. For technical reasons related to state ballot timelines, the Democratic Party will hold a roll call vote before the convention to nominate Harris for President and the nominee for Vice President.

The Democratic Convention will be held August 19-22 in Chicago, Illinois. The Convention will celebrate President Biden and publicly nominate Harris for president as well as the nominee for vice president. So far, Harris has unified the Democratic Party, has raised more money in one day than any other Presidential candidate and has decided to keep the entire Biden-Harris campaign staff for her campaign.

Within the next several days, Harris will select a Vice-Presidential running mate. Many names are in the public domain and there are some calls for an open process to select the Vice-Presidential candidate. The selection process for a Vice President has always been a decision of the Presidential candidate, so calls to do otherwise are not likely to result in a change to this long-standing process.

Last week the Republican Party hosted its convention and nominated for a third time former President Trump. Throughout the convention, speakers including the newly nominated Senator J.D. Vance criticized President Biden, questioning his competency and his Administration’s policies. The Republican Party and former President Trump were convinced that President Biden would not withdraw from the 2024 race and their campaign was designed to beat President Biden.

This analysis assumed there would be limited enthusiasm for President Biden as the Democratic Party’s nominee as well as a low voter turnout. Many believe that the Republican Party’s choice of Vance for the Vice-Presidential nominee was based on the belief that to be successful, former President Trump must turn out his base and conservative-leaning independent voters.

President Biden’s withdrawal and Vice President Harris’ soon-to-be nomination has thrown these assumptions into question. If Harris continues to solidify the Democratic Party and re-ignites the 2020 winning coalition resulting in a high voter turnout, the Republican campaign plan will have to adjust.

We are a long way from the November 5th Election Day and given everything that has happened in the last 3+ weeks, anything can happen in the next 103 days. And because of all that has happened in the last 3+ weeks, the public has a lot of information to digest so polling will be erratic, and it will take about 2-3 weeks before any polling will more accurately reflect the public’s views.