Presidential Transition in Mexico: Is Sheinbaum more of the same?

On October 1st, Claudia Sheinbaum took office as Mexico’s president for the 2024-2030 term, sparking mixed reactions among the population—ranging from concerns and uncertainty to hopes and high expectations for the country’s future. Opposition groups worry about democratic backsliding, as Sheinbaum supports constitutional reforms proposed by her mentor, former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), including judicial reforms and changes targeting autonomous institutions and the electoral system. Morena’s rapid expansion in local elections and its majority in Congress have raised fears of a potential return to an authoritarian system, reminiscent of the PRI’s (Institutional Revolutionary Party) dominance from 1940 to 2000.

Conversely, Morena supporters view Sheinbaum’s presidency as a continuation of AMLO’s social agenda and nationalist rhetoric. AMLO left office with a record 70% approval rating, paving the way for Sheinbaum’s landslide victory. Morena’s success is rooted in its focus on underserved populations and its promise to “transform” the country, while attracting voters disillusioned by corruption in PRI and PAN (National Action Party) governments. During her campaign, Sheinbaum pledged to continue AMLO’s cash transfer programs and anti-corruption efforts, key elements of Morena’s platform. For this reason, Sheinbaum’s inauguration has triggered varying perspectives: supporters see the continuation of AMLO’s policies as a path to reducing poverty and corruption, while critics warn of potential threats to Mexican democracy posed by Morena’s approach.

The new presidency has also raised expectations among various groups who view the presidential transition as an opportunity for policy shifts in key areas such as security, private investment, and the energy sector. The opposition is pushing for a more effective security strategy to tackle drug trafficking and violence, calling for the replacement of AMLO’s “Hugs not Bullets” approach, which focused on addressing the root causes of crime. Investors, both domestic and foreign, are curious whether Sheinbaum will foster a more business-friendly environment and break from AMLO’s state-led economic policies, particularly in the energy sector. Environmentalists hope for a shift toward renewable energy, moving away from AMLO’s oil-and-gas-focused agenda. Feminist groups remain divided: some hold high expectations for Mexico’s first female president, while others criticize Sheinbaum’s limited gender policy focus during her tenure as Mexico City’s mayor. A common thread among these groups is uncertainty over Sheinbaum’s willingness to deviate from her mentor’s approach.

On her inauguration day, Sheinbaum provided some insight into her government’s priorities and potential policy shifts. She announced an Energy National Plan centered on energy efficiency and renewable energy to drive the energy transition. Additionally, she delivered a feminist speech that highlighted women’s underappreciated role in Mexican politics and announced the creation of a federal Ministry of Women, cash transfers for women, and stronger protections for victims of domestic violence. Despite achieving gender parity in government roles, addressing Mexico’s high femicide rate remains a critical challenge.

Sheinbaum also emphasized the importance of scientific development and technological innovation, addressing the underfunding the scientific community faced under AMLO’s administration. To alleviate concerns in the private sector, she reassured foreign investors that their interests are secure, stating that her government would support nearshoring and private capital participation. Regarding security, she introduced a strategy focused on intelligence, investigation, and interagency coordination, mirroring the approach she implemented in Mexico City.

Overall, Sheinbaum’s presidency has stirred both optimism and skepticism, with significant uncertainty surrounding key areas such as democracy, investments, security, and energy policy. Whether her administration will represent a genuine policy shift or merely a continuation of AMLO’s legacy remains to be seen. Sheinbaum must balance restoring investor confidence while maintaining her voter base’s support, improving cooperation with the U.S. on migration and drug trafficking, and navigating the 2026 revision of the USMCA, which could affect critical trade provisions for Mexico’s economy. While her inaugural speech suggests new priorities, the true direction of her government will unfold in the coming months.