Legal Sanctions and Electoral Shifts: Assessing the Political Fallout of Marine Le Pen’s Ineligibility Verdict

Marine Le Pen’s Judgment

Marine Le Pen was tried alongside twenty-four other defendants, including eight former Members of the European Parliament, all facing charges related to the embezzlement of public funds regarding the case of the assistants of the party’s MEPs.

The leader of the far-right party was sentenced by the Paris Criminal Court to four years in prison – 2 years convertible to electronic monitoring and two suspended -, a €100,000 fine and a five-year sentence of ineligibility. Crucially, the ineligibility sentence is provisionally enforceable, meaning it takes effect immediately, despite the appeal that was filed.

Barring a reversal on appeal, Le Pen will be barred from standing in any election until 2030, ruling her out of the 2027 presidential race — a scenario that dramatically reshapes the political calculations of the Rassemblement National (RN) and its rivals.

While case law from the Constitutional Council allows Marine Le Pen to retain her seat as Member of Parliament for Pas-de-Calais, the enforceability clause means she would be barred from seeking reelection in the event of a dissolution of the National Assembly— which could occur as early as July 2025.

A Political Earthquake

The ruling immediately triggered a wave of reactions across the French political landscape.  On the government side, sources from individuals close to Prime Minister, said that François Bayrou was “troubled” by the verdict. Former Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal – now leader of the presidential party – reacted sharply: “I’m never troubled by democracy”. Dismissing Le Pen’s claims of a politically motivated decision, Attal added: «This is the party that demands toughness for everyone — except for itself; the party that calls for lifetime ineligibility for all — except for its own members; the party that believes no one should have immunity — except for Ms. Le Pen”. On the left side, while most of parties welcomed the verdict, Jean-Luc Mélenchon – leader of the radical-left party La France Insoumise – took a divergent stance, stating that: “the decision to remove an elected official should belong to the people”.

Internationally, Marine Le Pen has received support following the verdict, including from the Kremlin, Italian politician Matteo Salvini, and even Elon Musk. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán helped spark a trending topic on X with his post: “I am Marine”. Among these supporters, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, called for the “liberation” of Marine Le Pen, describing the ineligibility ruling as a “witch hunt”. His Vice President, J.D. Vance, also criticized the case, commenting: “this is not what democracy looks like”.

Legal and political options towards 2027

Le Pen’s legal team has already filed an appeal and The Paris Court of Appeal is expected to rule by summer 2026. Should the Court of Appeal reverse the ruling on ineligibility with provisional enforceability, Marine Le Pen could rerun in the 2027 presidential election.

Meanwhile, some far-right MPs are pushing for legislative changes to curb the immediate enforceability of ineligibility sentences. However, such efforts stand little chances of success in the current political context.

A Disruption in the French Presidential Race

Beyond its legal implications, Marine Le Pen’s conviction could have serious political consequences in the very short term. Indeed, the far-right party has issued threats to censure Prime Minister François Bayrou’s government in the wake of the court’s decision, although party claim that this move is unrelated to the verdict against Marine Le Pen.

Looking toward the 2027 presidential race, the far-right party now faces an internal dilemma.  While attention has momentarily shifted to current party president Jordan Bardella, he is still largely seen as a fallback figure rather than a true alternative to Le Pen. For now, the party remains committed to her candidacy – assuming the appeal process restores her eligibility.

Nevertheless, recent polls suggest the two leading figures of the Rassemblement National, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, benefit from similar levels of support in the presidential race, while keeping the far-right party well ahead in opinion polls. Whether this reflects a solid trend remains to be seen.

The ruling may also create space for other figures both from the far right or traditional right, to position themselves as credible contenders, amid growing uncertainty about the political landscape leading into 2027. To be continued.