French Elections Result: And now, what do we do?

Following the overwhelming victory of the far-right National Rally in France at the European Elections held on June 9, President Macron called for snap parliamentary elections that took place on June 30 and July 7. The first round was won by the far-right, but thanks to the so called “front républicain” the National Rally only finished third, behind the left-wing alliance and Emmanuel Macron’s centrists party.

Indeed, France’s coalition of left-wing parties (New Popular Front) and President Macron’s centrist coalition (Ensemble pour la République) decided to pull out over 200 candidates from three-way races in districts where the far right had a chance of clinching a seat. For the first time in modern political history, the results of the second round did not amplify the results of the 1st round, but rather reversed them.

The political “clarification” sought by President Macron has failed to materialize, and the political coup reveals an unprecedented political fragmentation where uncertainty prevails as the country hosts the Olympic Games.

An unexpected outcome underlining the political fragmentation of the country

As a result of the snap election, no party or bloc had secured either an absolute majority, nor a solid relative majority. France faces a hung parliament, divided into three roughly equal blocs (New Popular Front, Ensemble, National Rally). All blocs fell significantly short of the absolute majority of 289 seats (out of 577) that would have allowed them to immediately form a government.

After last week’s allocation of political groups at the National Assembly the distribution of seats is as follows:

• The New Popular Front (NFP), a coalition of left-wing parties has emerged as the surprise winner of this election, securing 193 seats in the 577-seats Assembly.
• Ensemble pour la République, the centrist coalition of President Emmanuel Macron is in second place with 166 seats.
• Third-place finish for the far-right National Rally and its allies, which had been expected to win the most seats with 142 seats. Still, the RN has gained a lot of seats and has the largest parliamentary group in the National Assembly.

The French political landscape is fragmented in an unprecedented manner, putting France temporarily in a deadlock.

The distribution of top jobs at the National Assembly, a first step

Last week-end, top jobs were distributed at the National Assembly. It’s the first step for possible alliances leading to the appointment of a Prime Minister.

As a result, the Left NPF coalition has a majority in the Assembly bureau, having won 12 of the 22 posts. However, former president of the National Assembly, Yael Braun-Pivet from Macron’s party succeeded in being re-elected to the position thanks to the support of the conservative party, La Droite Républicaine. This first deal in the Assembly has ensured to centrist and conservative parties a significant share of key positions in the chamber.

Parliament holds sway

President Macron, who accepted Prime minister’s Attal resignation on July 18, is allowed by France’s constitution to choose whoever he wants as Prime minister. Still, in practice, because the Assembly can force the resignation of the government, the president chooses someone who will be acceptable to the MPs. A coalition capable of claiming to govern will therefore have to be formed in the Assembly. It could thus become the center of political power in a system traditionally dominated by the executive. A hung Parliament makes this choice more difficult.

Several options are on the table, but none seems ideal. The most comfortable situation, as it would permit avoiding governmental instability, is a majority coalition, which would need to agree on a joint program and on a PM candidate and also to commit to vote a budget and to not support a no-confidence vote. This is the scenario put forward by President Macron. He wrote a letter to the French citizens, on July 10, calling the parties “to engage in sincere and loyal dialogue in order to build a solid, necessarily plural, majority for the country”. In a televised interview on July 23, he reiterated his desire to see the formation of a broad majority, bringing together the parties who took part in the “front républicain” by calling on their responsibility, thus including his own party.

However, unlike other EU Member States, France has had no experience of broad coalitions since 1958, and no party or political group has, so far, shown any interest in joining such a coalition.

The second plausible scenario is a minority government. Constitutionally, it is possible for a group to govern without an absolute majority (Macron has done it since 2022). But without a clear majority, a minority government faces the risk of no-confidence votes, and the country faces governmental instability. In this scenario, two minority government configurations are possible.

A government led by the left-wing coalition (NFP) which claimed victory after the election and since repeats its willingness to govern. The coalition finally succeeded yesterday, one hour before a President Macron interview, in agreeing on a Prime minister candidate, Lucie Castets, a high-level administrative, currently in charge of finance for the city of Paris, but unknown to the general public.

During his interview Tuesday night, President Macron expressed his refusal to appoint this candidate, as the NFP does not have an absolute majority and has failed to get its candidate at the Chair of the national assembly. He said that a Government lead by the NFP would fall quickly.

This delay leaves space for an alternative minority government, which could emerge from an agreement between Macron’s allies and the conservative party (Les Républicains, former President Sarkozy’s party). Such an agreement would secure more seats than the New popular Front and would prevent the NFP from entering government. Gabriel Attal, the resigning Prime Minister but elected group leader in Parliament, is due to present a coalition pact in the next few days, which could reflect some of the priorities formulated by the Conservatives in their own legislative pact, published on July 22.

Still, there are strong divisions among the conservative party on this option. Agreement on a government programme is the prerequisite for the formation of a center-right minority government alliance, able to challenge the left-wing New Popular Front’s claim to enter Matignon, the Prime Minister’s residence.

The final choice remains in President Macron’s hands. He indicated on July 23 that he would wait until the end of the Olympic Games to appoint a new government, in order to ensure continuity and stability during this period. He called political parties on their responsibility and ask them to use this time to find a broader agreement than the current left-wing alliance.

Stay tuned.