France Political Update: Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s bitter pill to cure France

On October 2, 2024, France’s newly appointed Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivered his much-anticipated general policy speech to Parliament, outlining an austere vision to tackle what he referred to as France’s “dual budgetary and ecological debt.” Promising a change from Emmanuel Macron’s hyper-centralized leadership style, Barnier pledged to put “dialogue and the culture of compromise” at the heart of his actions. He committed to listening to all political forces, engaging local authorities and labor partners, and maintaining an open dialogue with France’s overseas territories. His remarks were widely viewed as a veiled jab at Macron’s top-down approach to governance, signaling Barnier’s intent to lead in a more collaborative fashion.

Barnier also presented five key priorities for his government: improving the standard of living, enhancing public services, strengthening security, reforming immigration policy, and fostering fraternity. He reiterated France’s support for Ukraine and underscored the country’s position within the European Union, pledging to pursue French interests on the global stage “without arrogance.” In doing so, he positioned himself as mindful of both national and international concerns, intent on balancing fiscal prudence with a forward-looking foreign policy. His address set the stage for what will undoubtedly be a challenging tenure, amidst a deeply divided political landscape.

Barnier’s first major legislative test came on October 10, when he presented the 2025 budget bill to the Council of Ministers.

Fiscal prudence front and center

The bill, which prioritizes debt reduction, aims to bring France’s deficit down from seven percent of GDP in 2024 to five percent in 2025, with a longer-term goal of reducing it to below three percent by 2029. To achieve this, the government is proposing a €60.6 billion fiscal adjustment, comprised of €41.3 billion in spending cuts and of €19.3 billion in additional revenue. These measures reflect Barnier’s preoccupation with reducing public debt, which he has characterized as a “sword of Damocles” looming threateningly over France’s economic stability.

The budget bill set out four primary objectives: supporting economic growth, reducing “ecological debt”, protecting citizens’ purchasing power, and enhancing national security. Specifically, the government aims to bolster innovation, encourage reindustrialization, and create jobs to achieve a projected GDP growth rate of 1.1% in 2025. While the bill allocates €2.8 billion for ecological initiatives, critics argue that its spending cuts will undermine Barnier’s stated commitment to green policies. Several key programs for ecological transition have seen their funding reduced, prompting accusations that Barnier is prioritizing financial stability at the expense of environmental responsibility.

This emphasis on debt reduction also marks a departure from Macron’s economic policies. Since taking office in 2017, Macron has generally avoided tax increases and prioritized the creation of a business-friendly environment. By contrast, Barnier has introduced a temporary tax on large corporations and a one-off tax on the wealthiest individual, measures that Macron has historically avoided. Barnier’s willingness to tap into these revenue streams, in the name of tax justice, reflects a pragmatic approach that contrasts with the stubbornly pro-business policies of his predecessor.

Enemies left and right

Barnier’s budget proposal has drawn sharp criticism from both the opposition and members of his own centrist bloc. Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who served under Macron, has called for more aggressive spending cuts and expressed opposition to Barnier’s proposed tax increases, particularly those affecting large and profitable corporations. Attal has also criticized the bill’s provision for a six-month freeze on pensions, arguing that it places an undue burden on retirees. This internal dissent highlights the ideological fractures within Barnier’s support base, as he attempts to chart a course that balances fiscal responsibility with social equity.

On the left, hard-left MP Eric Coquerel, president of the National Assembly’s Finance Committee, has denounced the budget as an austerity measure that disproportionately affects the working and middle classes. Coquerel argues that the spending cuts will degrade essential public services, placing additional strain on those who rely on government support for education, healthcare, and housing. He also criticized Barnier’s decision to cut certain environmental programs, describing the budget as “absolutely unequal”. For Coquerel and other left-wing MPs, Barnier’s budget falls short of addressing the needs of ordinary citizens, while offering only token contributions from the ultra-wealthy.

Environmental groups have likewise voiced their discontent. Although Barnier has increased the overall ecology budget, several key initiatives have seen their funding reduced. The head of Green MPs Cyrielle Chatelain responded to Barnier’s budget speech with skepticism, questioning the sincerity of his commitment to environmental issues. Green Senator Thomas Dossus expressed a similar sentiment, asserting that “we’ve clearly understood that financial debt takes precedence over ecological debt.” These criticisms underscore a growing divide between Barnier’s fiscal conservatism and the demands of environmental advocates, who argue that France must do more to address the climate crisis. 

Threading the needle

In addition to financial and ecological challenges, Barnier’s budget also strives to address national security, a priority he has emphasized since taking office. The 2025 bill allocates an additional €600 million for security, yet it simultaneously freezes new hiring for police and gendarmerie personnel. This decision has raised concerns among police unions, who warn that further delays in recruitment could compromise public safety. Barnier’s security measures reflect his broader approach to governance, one that aims to, in his own words, do “a lot with a little.” However, this may struggle to meet the high expectations of a security-conscious electorate.

As the budget bill heads to Parliament for debate, Barnier faces a fractured political landscape. With no party holding an outright majority, he must build consensus across a divided Assembly. Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin has set a framework of €40 billion in spending cuts and €20 billion in tax increases, emphasizing that this balance is “sacrosanct.” However, Barnier’s ability to maintain this framework in the face of opposition is uncertain. Elements of the budget, such as the pension freeze, are likely to be contentious, and opposition parties have signaled their intent to challenge Barnier on multiple fronts.

Moreover, Barnier’s budget may also test his commitment to education, an area he highlighted in his general policy speech. During his address, he committed to enhancing teachers’ working conditions, and even to stepping up recruitment, suggesting that retired teachers might be called on to fill temporary positions. Yet, the budget plans to cut 4000 teaching positions, a decision that has some MPs concerned about student-to-teacher ratios. Barnier’s education policies may come under further scrutiny as parliamentary discussions progress, particularly if his budget proposals are perceived as inconsistent with his broader policy agenda.

Moving forward

Despite the challenges ahead, Barnier is determined to see the budget through, even if it means invoking Article 49-3 of the Constitution, which allows the government to force a law through Parliament without having MPs vote on it. He may consider this highly contentious maneuver necessary given the Assembly’s current fractured composition. When navigating this complex environment, Barnier’s approach to the budget debate will offer insights into his leadership style and his ability to work with parliamentarians from across the political spectrum.

Barnier himself has tempered expectations, acknowledging that his government “will not work miracles, as the path is so steep.” As he moves forward with his agenda, his ability to balance fiscal prudence with social equity will be crucial in determining the success of his tenure. His roadmap for addressing France’s financial and ecological debts is a bitter pill, and its implementation will depend on his capacity to build consensus in a divided Assembly. In this context, Barnier’s focus on compromise and collaboration may prove to be as important as the policies he champions, and the main tool in his arsenal to ensure his administration lasts past fall.