Election Updates: Lithuania, Dominican Republic, Mexico, & Bulgaria

Lithuania

Overview: Lithuania held presidential elections in May. The elections saw the incumbent, Gitanas Nausėda – an Independent – face-off against Lithuania’s current prime minister and a member of Lithuania’s main conservative party, Ingrida Šimonytė, in a repeat of presidential elections in 2019. Both candidates campaigned on platforms of continuing support for Ukraine in its struggle against Russia and boosting defense spending. Notably, Nausėda has taken a more conciliatory approach to relation with China compared to Šimonytė.

Results: Following two rounds of voting, the incumbent Gitanas Nausėda won by a landslide, securing 74.6% of the vote. This will be Nausėda’s second five-year term as president of Lithuania. In Lithuania, the president holds responsibility for foreign policy and defense policy as commander-in-chief of Lithuania’s armed forces.

Outlook: Despite receiving outsized public support, Nausėda faces several challenges in his next term. Nausėda must contend with the growing threat of Russian aggression in the Baltics. Increasingly Lithuania, along with its Baltic neighbors have been at odds with the rest of the bloc over in advocating for providing more offensive support for Ukraine.

Dominican Republic

Overview: The Dominican Republic presidential and congressional elections took place this past May 19, with the current President Luis Abinader winning reelection with the second highest score in the country’s history as a democracy.

Results: President Abinader declared victory in the Dominican Republic’s elections with over 57% of the vote, securing at least 29 of the 32 Senate seats and 145 of the 190 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. This landslide victory and complete majority in the legislative branch are attributed to his efforts to fight corruption, implement institutional reforms, and maintain honest and transparent governance.

Outlook: Due to President Abinader’s recent efforts to promote a more transparent government and his ongoing diplomatic initiatives to strengthen the bilateral relationship between the United States and the Dominican Republic, President Biden views the Dominican Republic as a close and strong ally. Secretary Blinken congratulated President Abinader and expressed a desire to continue collaborating on various initiatives for growth and prosperity. They also discussed support for human rights protections and the Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support mission to Haiti.

Mexico

Overview: On June 2^nd, Mexico held presidential elections, marking a historic milestone with Claudia Sheinbaum from the wing-left party MORENA (National Regeneration Movement), becoming the country’s first female president. Sheinbaum promised to continue the agenda and social programs implemented by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). The opposition candidates Xochitl Galvez (PRI-PAN) and Jorge Maynez (Movimiento Ciudadano) proposed significant shifts in security, energy, and the promotion of foreign investments.

Results: Claudia Sheinbaum won 59% of the vote, surpassing her opponents by over 30 points. Xochitl Galvez received 27%, and Jorge Maynez obtained 10%. The resounding victory is partly attributed to the high level of approval of AMLO’s administration (over 60% of the population) and the increase in disposable income resulting from the rise in the minimum wage and the direct cash transfers delivered to low-income populations. MORENA also secured a majority in Congress, enabling Sheinbaum to pass constitutional reforms.

Outlook: Sheinbaum campaigned on continuing the legacy of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), who maintained a high popularity throughout his administration. Some of the main concerns of the opposition are AMLO’s attempts to reform the electoral institute, eliminate other autonomous institutions overseeing transparency and competition, and pass a Judicial reform. It remains unclear whether Sheinbaum will pursue those reforms once she assumes power, or if AMLO will try again before his presidency ends, given the new composition of Congress.

Bulgaria

Overview: On June 9, Bulgaria held parliamentary elections for the composition of its 50^th National Assembly to be inaugurated on June 16. This is the sixth parliamentary election in three years. The election revealed a historically low voter turnout of 30%, attributed to vote fatigue, apathy, and wide disillusionment with politicians and corruption scandals.

Results: The center-right party, GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, won the election with 24% of the National Assembly vote. However, the party secured only 68 seats out of the required 121 to form a government, meaning that GERB will need at least two partners to form a governing coalition. The election produced a highly fragmented parliament between the seven political formations.

Outlook: Negotiations, led by GERB, are expected to begin in the coming weeks to form a coalition government. Given the political fragmentation, it is still unclear whether any of the political parties will manage to form a government or whether a new round of parliamentary elections will be scheduled.