Election Updates: Belarus & Russia

Belarus

Overview: Parliamentary elections were conducted in Belarus on February 24, 2024, marking the first such event in the country since presidential elections in 2020, which ignited widespread political protests and led to a nationwide crackdown on political dissidents. These February elections were distinguished by the notable absence of opposition candidates, following the authorities’ refusal to approve numerous candidates and a boycott initiated by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the leader of the exiled Belarusian opposition. Additionally, the election process deviated significantly from international norms, highlighted by the government’s decision not to invite international observers from the OSCE for the first time and the introduction of new regulations designed to suppress dissenting votes. These measures included the removal of curtains at polling stations, among other arbitrary actions, further evidencing the government’s disregard for electoral integrity.

Results: Belarus’s leading pro-government party, Belaya Russia, secured a majority of the seats, accounting for 51%. Independent candidates received 40% of the vote, while the remaining 19% was divided among Belarus’s other three officially registered parties, all of which support President Aleksander Lukashenko’s policies. Belarusian opposition leaders and Western officials were in unanimous agreement, characterizing the elections as a sham. This division of votes highlights the contentious nature of the electoral process and the widespread skepticism regarding its legitimacy.

Outlook: Next year, Belarus is set to experience pivotal political events, including presidential elections and the first gathering of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, a newly established parliamentary body with significant powers. President Lukashenko aims for a seventh consecutive term, amid apprehensions of repeating the political unrest seen in 2020. The upcoming elections are critical, likely ushering in an even more tightly controlled electoral process. Moreover, these events highlight Minsk’s increasing reliance on Russia for economic and security assistance, a dependency that has led to a compromise of Belarusian sovereignty. This scenario underscores the interconnected challenges of domestic governance and international relations facing Belarus.

Russia

Overview: Presidential elections were held in Russia from March 15-17, 2024, with Vladimir Putin securing his fifth term as President of the Russian Federation by a record margin. The elections elicited mixed reactions globally, with the U.S. and European allies largely condemning the process, whereas Russia’s traditional allies and some non-aligned countries extended congratulations to Putin on his victory. The electoral landscape was marked by nominal opposition, as non-Kremlin-aligned and anti-war candidates were barred from participating. Public response from those opposed to the election was notably subdued. The muted nature of protests reflects the chilling impact of the Kremlin’s crackdown on opposition voices, further underscored by its alleged involvement in the recent death of the country’s leading opposition figure, Alexei Navalny.

Results: Putin secured 87% of the popular vote, while the three leading opposition candidates collectively garnered just over 4%, according to the latest figures released by Russian election officials. The elections witnessed a record turnout, with 77.5% of the electorate participating, a significant increase from the 67.5% turnout in 2018. Additionally, elections were conducted in the Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine, where reports indicated that residents were compelled to vote at gunpoint.

Outlook: Vladimir Putin is on track to remain in power until at least 2030, positioning him as Russia’s longest-serving leader in modern history and surpassing Soviet premier Josef Stalin. The elections are perceived by the Kremlin as a means to convey the appearance of a Russian populace united behind Putin and supportive of the war in Ukraine. It is anticipated that Putin will leverage this superficially renewed sense of legitimacy to assertively pursue Russian objectives in Ukraine, with speculation that the elections might be used as a pretext for a new wave of mass conscriptions. Simultaneously, Putin has utilized the recent elections and the purported support of the Russian people for his policies to highlight political discord in the United States. In a recent NBC interview, Putin characterized the U.S. political climate as “a disaster, not a democracy.” By juxtaposing the election results with the political turmoil in the U.S., Putin aims to weaken Western support for Ukraine and exploit concerns within Western European capitals about the possibility of a second Trump presidency.