July 2023
A Look Ahead to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Region: US
With the 2024 U.S. presidential election race taking shape, political strategist Doug Sosnik has released a new memo analyzing key factors in the race. Sosnik argues that traditional indicators such as presidential job approval, national polls and “right track/wrong track” numbers no longer have the predictive power that they once did.
Instead, he posits the importance of eight key swing states whose populations skew in the middle — “neither extremely high nor extremely low”— on specific factors such as educational attainment and the unique makeup of their electorate.