2024 U.S. Election Update: Two weeks until Election Day

The question with two weeks to go appears to be – “Is the race slipping away from Harris?” The answer, I believe, is No – except the race continues to be very close. Here are ten factors to consider:

1) Polling. There are many Republican leaning pollsters and polling that are publishing polls that show former President Trump’s number moving favorably and Vice President Harris’ numbers moving in the opposite direction. When these Republican leaning polls are added to other polls, the average for all polls moves to favor President Trump. This technique was employed in 2022, the year of the Republican Party “Red Wave” that never happened. Extracting the Republican leaning polls, the results in the battleground states as of Sunday, October 20 is as follows:

Nevada: Harris +1

North Carolina: Trump +1

Pennsylvania: Harris +2

Wisconsin: Harris +2

Michigan: Harris +2

Georgia: Trump +2

Arizona: Trump +2

This continues to be a close race, and all polls are all within the margin of error.

2) Voter registration. New voter registrations in all states, including the seven key battleground states are up two and three times over this time last year. New registrations tend to be younger, women, and people of color. While no one can predict how these new voters will vote or if they will vote, the demographics of these new voters tend to lean Democrat. The breakdown for newly registered voters thus far is: 49% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 17% unaffiliated.  Also, it is worth noting that polls do not include newly registered voters.

3) Early voting. Early voting happens in every U.S. state and the District of Columbia. The timing for early voting and the rules are different in every state. So far, 14 million voters have voted. Not all states make party affiliation public. For those states where we have party affiliation, about 46% of the early vote is Democrats, 36% of the early vote is Republican, and 18% of the early vote is Independent. The Republican share of early voting is higher than in 2020 because during COVID, Democrats overwhelming voted absentee and Republicans voted on Election Day. In Georgia, a battleground state, over one million voters have voted. In North Carolina, hit by two hurricanes, voters broke the state’s previous record and over 353,000 voters have already voted. In Pennsylvania where Democrats tend to dominate early voting, Republicans have increased their share of early voting from 16% to 24%. Independents make up 17% of early voters.

4) Get Out the Vote (GOTV). The “ground game” (the candidates’ voter mobilization organization in each state) is vitally important in the last two weeks running up to the election. Former President Trump and the Republican National Committee have contracted out their GOTV operation to private companies. This has never been done before and State Republican parties are concerned. That said, it may work very well to have private companies identify and get Trump voters to the polls.

Vice President Harris and the Democratic National Committee have stayed with the traditional mechanisms for GOTV and have infused state Democratic parties with money and other resources, including thousands of volunteers.

We will all know on election day which methods worked best!

5) Money! The Harris campaign has more money than the Trump campaign and this will matter in the closing days of the race. The Harris campaign will continue to run ads on TV, radio and social media, continue to put money into its ground campaign, and continue to have the candidates Harris and Walz as well as surrogates such as former Presidents Obama and Clinton, and others constantly in battleground states. And while Republicans have funds from individuals such as Elon Musk, those funds cannot be coordinated with either the National or state level party operations.

6) Underperforming and Overperforming the Polls! Since the U.S. Supreme Court’s historic Dobbs v. Jackson decision where women’s autonomy over their bodies has been left to state legislatures, Democrats have been over-performing in all recent races and ballot initiatives. Democrats, Independents, and Republicans joined together to ensure women’s reproductive freedom in Kansas and Ohio by larger margins than predicted. And Democrat candidates won in every special election for Congress between 2022 and 2024. Republicans have been underperforming since the Dobbs decision and have underperformed in the seven battleground states for Congressional races in 2022.

7) Ballot Initiatives. The right to an abortion is a Constitutional initiative in several states, some of which are battleground (“BG”) states: Arizona (BG), Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada (BG), New York, and South Dakota. In several states such as Arizona, Florida, Maryland, Montana, Nebraska, and Nevada, there are close Senate races that will determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate.

8) There are two races where the Republicans candidates are performing poorly. In Arizona, the Republican party candidate for the U.S. Senate, Kari Lake, is seven points behind the Democratic party candidate, Reuben Gallego. If past is prologue, this race will be a drag on the Republican candidate, Trump, in the Presidential race. Similarly, in North Carolina, the race for Governor shows Josh Stein, the Democratic candidate at 54% and Mark Robinson, the Republican candidate at 39%. With fewer and fewer voters splitting their vote between the Republican and Democratic party candidates, North Carolina’s race for the state’s highest office may drag Trump’s candidacy down.

9) Gender Gap. There is a huge gender gap for the candidates. Trump is leading among men, while Harris is leading among women. Women tend to vote more than men. In the last election, women were 54.7% of the vote, while men were 44% of the vote. To understand the impact of the gender gap, here are a few examples in key states:

In Pennsylvania, the most recent non-partisan poll shows that 55% of women support Harris and 43% support Trump, while men support Trump over Harris, 54% to 44%. In Michigan, 56% of women say they will vote for Harris, while 52% of men say they will support Trump. The percentages are similar in Wisconsin and Nevada. Assuming the turnout of women and the turnout of men is the same as in 2020, Harris’ vote percentage will be higher than Trump’s in these states. In Georgia and Arizona, the gender gap favors former President Trump because slightly more men favor Trump than women favor Harris.

10) Race and Ethnicity. There have been several articles claiming that the Black vote, the Hispanic vote, and other groups are moving away from the Democrats and Vice President Harris. It is hard to have a clear indication of the movement. The sample size for the polls is too small and the margin of error for the poll is too large to draw any solid conclusion. On this factor, we will have to wait for the exit polls and much more rigorous analysis to see whether traditional Democratic party allies are moving to Trump and/or the Republican party.