France Political Update: What next for France’s new Prime Minister?

In an unprecedented turn of events, the results of France’s parliamentary elections on July 7^th led to a fractured National Assembly, with the creation of three dominant political blocs: the far right, the presidential party and its allies, and the left. This marks a historic shift in modern French politics, as no single party or coalition has secured an outright 289 seats majority, the threshold needed to govern autonomously.

In this unprecedented instability, Emmanuel Macron had to appoint a new Prime Minister. After weeks of closed-door consultations and swirling rumors, the President picked Michel Barnier, replacing Gabriel Attal. Barnier, the oldest Prime Minister in modern French history, succeeds Attal, whose brief eight-month term underscores the growing volatility in French governance.

Given the new configuration of the National Assembly, it remains to be seen for how long Michel Barnier will remain Prime Minister and what his priorities and room for maneuver will be.

Michel Barnier: the choice of compromise

Michel Barnier is a right-wing politician known for his extensive experience in both French and European public service. Having held numerous ministerial roles at the national level under presidents Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, Barnier is particularly renowned for his diplomatic skills and adeptness in high-stakes negotiations. His reputation was also cemented at the EU level, with the successive positions he’s held, notably as Commissioner for Internal Market and Services, special advisor to the European Commission’s Presidents José Manuel Barroso and Jean-Claude Juncker, and his more recent tenure as the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, where he successfully navigated one of the most complex political negotiations in recent history. His ability to maintain a firm yet diplomatic stance throughout the protracted talks earned him international. This, combined with his decades-long career in public service makes him a figure of substantial credibility and experience.

The decision to appoint Barnier as Prime Minister came after a long and opaque process of consultations led by President Macron. He had initially explored several options, including political profiles such as former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, right-wing Hauts-de-France region President Xavier Bertrand, as well as the former general secretary of the CFDT union Laurent Berger and Place Publique leader Raphaël Glucksmann.

During the summer, former right-wing President Nicolas Sarkozy weighed in by calling on his political family, Les Républicains, previously opposed to a participation in the next government, to work to “get a right-wing Prime Minister appointed”. This resulted in Laurent Wauquiez, current head of Les Républicains, shifting his political strategy to signal the party’s willingness to work with the President, a lifeline for Macron who was given a solution to break the deadlock. Barnier was deemed an appealing compromise, as his stature, experience, and alignment with center-right politics made him the most pragmatic choice for leading the government in this fractured political landscape.

To the right

Michel Barnier’s appointment as Prime Minister is a coup for the French right. Despite their diminished presence in the National Assembly, with just 47 MPs following June’s early legislative elections, the right-wing Republicans now find themselves in power. In a twist of political fate, they hold a key position and are able to influence the direction of Macron’s government. Barnier’s support extends to the center-right as well, with former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, leader of the Horizons party, applauding Macron’s decision. This backing gives Barnier a fragile but notable base of 80 MPs (33 from Horizons and 47 from LR), that will likely be able to also rely on the presidential party’s 130 seats.

The strongest opposition will come from the left, led by the New Popular Front, who have labeled the whole process that led to his appointment a “denial of democracy.” The left-wing coalition considers that, after they came in first in a June parliamentary election that saw record voter participation and had two thirds of the electorate vote against the far-right, the President should not have named a right-wing Prime Minister that can only govern with the tacit support of the National Rally. Radical left group France Unbowed has even tabled a motion to “initiate impeachment proceedings” against President Macron in the National Assembly.

In this context, against all odds and despite voters forming a “Republican front” to bar Marine Le Pen’s party from power, the future of Barnier’s government puts the National Rally in a kingmaker position.. The far-right leader even urged her troops to “take the next step and become an influential opposition”. The National Rally has indicated that they would refrain from voting non-confidence motions against Barnier’s government if his policies align with their priorities on immigration, purchasing power, and proportional representation. This gives them unexpected power, as they represent 142 votes in the National Assembly.

What Barnier’s tenure might look like

During the handover between Gabriel Attal and Michel Barnier on September 5, Michel Barnier promised “changes and ruptures in this new page” and plans to completely renew the government. But how much freedom will he really have? Indeed, in this unprecedented era, Macron already described the new political situation as a “demanding coexistence” rather than a “cohabitation”, indicating his intention to stay involved in the country’s governance. While Barnier affirmed that the “The President must preside, and the Government must govern”, implying that Macron should preserve the government’s agency, the President will still have a say in the areas placed under his authority, such as foreign affairs, making it difficult for Barnier to be fully sovereign.

Furthermore, while Barnier talks about breaking from the past, he has already placed several people from the previous government in senior positions in his staff. Finally, the replacement of Commissioner Thierry Breton by Stéphane Séjourné, former head of the Renew party at the European Parliament, on September 16 does not bode well for Barnier’s emancipation prospects. Indeed, Emmanuel Macron decided on this change without consulting Barnier, even as Thierry Breton came from just-appointed Prime Minister’s political party.

Michel Barnier faces an uphill battle as he prepares to form a government capable of avoiding non-confidence votes in a deeply fractured National Assembly. During the handover speech, the new Prime Minister asserted that the country “needs listening and respect”, both between Parliament and the Government, as well as toward all French political forces. Having already pledged to assemble a “balanced, representative, plural” team of “serious ministers,” Barnier aims to present a united front across party lines. However, his task will be complicated by the New Popular Front leaders’ outright refusal to allow any of their members to serve in his government. This leaves Barnier with a narrow path to secure a parliamentary majority and build consensus in a divided legislature. The first test of his ability to navigate these challenges will come when he delivers his general policy speech to Parliament in early October, outlining the political line and program of his government.

Barnier’s most critical task in the short term will be passing the 2025 Budget and Health budget bills. Playing up his reputation as a candid man, the Prime Minister, has promised to “tell the truth about France’s financial and ecological debt,” signaling his commitment to fiscal responsibility. He has already requested additional time from the European Commission to submit its budget strategy for 2027, as France is currently under an excessive deficit procedure. This delay only buys Barnier a little breathing room.

Nevertheless, the Prime Minister must present the 2025 finance bill by early October and secure parliamentary approval by December 31, 2024, in a political environment where his government doesn’t have a majority. With just weeks to draft the text and convince parliamentarians to back it, he will need to negotiate deftly across party lines. In light of France’s public finance situation, Barnier will have to reduce indebtedness one way or the other. He has signaled an openness to “greater tax justice” to attract some support from the left but appeasing all sides in a fragmented Assembly will remain a formidable challenge. Yet, Barnier’s ability to avoid censure and push through his first major legislative test will set the tone for his tenure.

Conclusion

Michel Barnier’s appointment as Prime Minister marks a critical juncture in modern French politics, one defined by deep divisions and an unprecedented lack of parliamentary majority. Adding to this context, far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s called for a new dissolution of the Assembly and new parliamentary elections in the summer 2025, when the constitutional deadline of one year allows.

As he prepares to deliver his general policy speech in October, his future government’s days may already be numbered. Perhaps, however, Barnier’s experience as a skilled negotiator will help him salvage a modicum stability in France ongoing turbulence and enable his government to last beyond that date. That remains to be seen.