U.S. Midterm Elections Update: By The Numbers

Recent media reports tend to show the Democrats will likely take the U.S. House of Representatives. It’s important to see why this may happen.

First, the Democrats need five seats to win the majority. Typically in a midterm election, the party of the sitting U.S. president loses control of at least one house in the Legislative Branch. But the Republicans mid-year tried to stop that trend by “gerrymandering”—changing the boundaries of Democratic districts hoping to include more Republican voters. More on this attempt a little later.

Second, while there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, there are only 40-50 seats that are actually competitive. Right now, there are 185 Solid Democratic seats and 176 Solid Republican seats. Also, within the 171 Solid Republican seats, there are three seats that are the result of “gerrymandering”—in Louisiana, Tennessee, and Texas. It is also interesting to note that 10 days ago, there were 176 seats considered Solid Republican; so the map is moving.

Third, the Cook Political Report* rates seats as Solid, Likely, Lean, and Toss Up. We know that “Solid” means those seats are nearly 100 percent going to remain with the party currently holding the seat. But what about the other terms? What does it mean to be “Likely” Democrat or Republican? Roughly speaking, a “Likely” designation means a 75 percent chance win, “Lean”is 65 percent, and “Toss Up” is just that: 50/50.

Let’s take a closer look. In the “Likely” category for Democrats, there are now 17 seats, all held by Democrats currently or previously. Last week, this category had only 12 seats designated as “Likely.” But in the Republican “Likely” category, there are 16 (last week there were 19) and three are formerly held by Democrats. In this current climate, “Likely” may be wishful thinkingfor those three seats because those seats, Alabama 2, Florida 9, and Maine 2, for example, are currently polling at 50%-50%.

In the “Lean” category for Democrats, there are 12 seats including seven seats currently and formerly held by Republicans. This is where the landscape is moving. These Republican seats were considered “toss ups” for many months. Now, these seven seats have moved closer to Democrat wins. The seats to watch are Arizona 1, California 48, Iowa 1 and 3, Nebraska 2, New Jersey 7, and Pennsylvania 7 and 10.

In the “Lean” category for Republicans, there are 13 seats: 11 Republicans and 2 Democrats.  The two Democrat seats that are Republican targets are Maine 2 and Texas 35. Both seats were formerly held by Democrats but because the President’s approval rating is at an all-time low, these seats are much more competitive. Moreover, Republicans thought redistricting would produce easy wins, but Republicans have been spending a lot of money, millions, to capture these two seats. Also, many of the “Lean” Republican seats that were recently in the “Likely”category and downgraded to “Lean” may, in the next week, look more like “Toss Ups.”

The remaining category “Toss Ups” includes 16 Republicans and five Democrats. These seats have been polling within the margin of error for months so it is difficult to determine who will win but the Republicans are defending more than twice the number of seats in this category.

One unknown is money. The Republicans are spending much more money defending their seats and attacking Democrats than Democrats are spending. No one truly knows the impact money and ads will have over the next two weeks.

Based on the polling and “vibes” today, if the Democrats will all their “Likely” and “Lean” seats, they only need four out of 21 “Toss Ups” to take the majority. With that margin, Democrats arelikely to win the House of Representatives and conservatively will have 225 seats, a 7-seat margin.

The Senate is much harder to call because all the races are very close—but here is a quick update.

The most likely “pick up” for Democrats is North Carolina where Senator Thom Tillis declined to run for re-election. The former Governor, Roy Cooper, is very likely to win. Given the current balance in the Senate, with Cooper winning, the Democrats will hold 48 seats.

The Republicans were eager to pick up a seat in Georgia, but sitting Democratic Senator Jon Osoff is very likely to hold onto his seat in Georgia.

Previously, it looked like only Ohio and Maine were possible “pickups” for Democrats. Of these two races, Ohio, where Senator Sherrod Brown is making a comeback is likely to be a “pick up”for the Democrats. The race in Maine is harder to predict because the incumbent, Senator Susan Collins, is a formidable candidate and the Democrats had a hard time picking a candidate.

The Republicans are spending lots of money in Michigan where a Democrat retired. The race is between Abdul El-Sayed (D) and Mike Rogers (R), and it is close and ugly.

Texas, Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas are very tight races. Texas is an open seat since Senator John Cornyn lost his seat in a primary and Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, is in a dead-heat with Texas State House Representative James Talarico.

In Alaska, the Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan is in a statistical tie with his challenger, former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola. The seat in Iowa is an open seat since the Republican senator chose not to run for re-election and the current polling shows a tie.

In Kansas, a Democrat who is also a minister is giving the sitting Senator a literal run for his money. Polls show Adam Hamilton, the Democrat challenger, tied with Republican Senator Roger Marshall who previously won his seat by more than 20 points. There is also some chatter among political experts that sitting Senator Pete Ricketts of Nebraska may be unseated by independent challenger candidate Don Osborn, although most polls show Ricketts has a lead.

At 48 seats with the likely pick up in North Carolina, the Democrats must pick up three more seats. The playing field has expanded but the Democrats must hold seats in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Michigan and then go on to win four more seats in North Carolina and Ohio and pick up two more seats in Alaska, Iowa, Texas, or Kansas to be at 52 Senate seats. Prior to the war in Iran, this scenario, which is now plausible, would have been highly unlikely.