#BlueStarByte: When Did “October Surprise” Take on a Political Meaning?

In the United States, the final weeks before Election Day are often associated with an “October surprise”, an unexpected event or revelation shortly before voters go to the polls that could swaythe election’s outcome.

“October surprise” was not originally a political term but rather a phrase used by American retail businesses in the late 19th and early 20th centuries to promote seasonal sales. However, the phrase took on its political meaning during the 1980 presidential election, when Ronald Reagan’s campaign feared that President Jimmy Carter might announce a last-minute breakthrough in negotiations with Iran to release 52 American hostages, thereby boosting his re–election bid ahead of the November 4th election date. Although no such breakthrough occurred before Election Day—the hostages were not released until January 1981 shortly after Reagan was sworn in as president—the expression “October Surprise” became a common term in U.S. politics.