U.S. Administration Update: What Is Happening with President Trump’s Approval Rating?

Polls, as we all know, are merely a snapshot of a moment in time. They should not be viewed as predictive of future events, such as the U.S.’s mid-term elections that will not happen until November 2026. That said, there are some takeaways from a cross section of analytical polls conducted after the U.S. bombing of Iran.

The first takeaway is President Trump’s approval rating continues to be negative. His net disapproval is 52%, while his net approval is 44%. These numbers are the result of averaging several polls that were taken in the last week where President Trump’s highest disapproval rating was 56%, and his lowest approval rating was 41%. In a Republican poll in that same survey, President Trump’s approval was 50%, and his disapproval was 47%. Every other poll and average of polls had the President’s approval rating under water, under 50%.

So why isn’t the media making a lot of noise about the President’s high disapproval rating?

The lack of coverage by the media and others stems from the fact that President Trump has not reached the level of disapproval he had in his first term. This time last year, President Trump’s disapproval was +15 or 7 points lower than it is today. That measure has become the media’s standard for President Trump’s viability.

But it’s not just President Trump’s approval rating that is slipping. His management of the economy, including tariffs is down, with 58% of voters disapproving of his managing of the economy and 56% disapproving of tariffs. Before the passage of the one Big Beautiful Bill (BBB), 51% of U.S. voters disapproved of President Trump’s handling of healthcare.  This disapproval rating is likely to decrease further since only 39% of U.S. voters approve of the BBB, while 61% disapprove.

The biggest shift of support is among independent voters and shifts in voters who are in the middle class with earnings of $50,000 to $100,000. In the 2024 election, middle-class voters shifted from Democrats to Republicans with President Trump taking 52% of those voters.  Today, President Trump’s support among middle-class voters has dropped 14 points with only 38% of those voters supporting President Trump. The reasons for the drop: prices have remained high; the risk of recession is greater; on again, off again tariffs; and economic uncertainty.

The greatest dip in support concerns President Trump’s signature issue: immigration. While most Americans regardless of party want the U.S. border secure and undocumented immigrants who have committed violent crimes deported, recent polling by Gallop reveals that President Trump’s policies regarding mass deportation have much less support. The biggest shift is among independent voters; 69% of independent voters now disapprove of President Trump’s handling of immigration.

Most importantly, there has been a big shift in voters’ concern about immigration, which dropped from 55% of all voters to 30% of all voters. This shift is largely because the U.S. border is more secure and because Independents are far less concerned about immigration.

But there is another big shift. Seventy-nine percent of U.S. voters believe that immigration is good for the United States and the U.S. economy. And an overwhelming majority, 85% and 78%, believes in a path for citizenship, with 85% believing undocumented children should have a path, and 78% believing undocumented adults should have a path. Republicans have moved by 13% to favor a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

Hispanic voters’ views on these issues are nearly the same as all voters with a couple of exceptions. Since President Trump has started deporting not only undocumented immigrants  who have committed crimes but also undocumented immigrants with no criminal record, Hispanic voters are far less likely to support mass deportation, especially without due process. Additionally, Hispanic voters are less likely to support the massive increase planned for border agents provided for in the BBB. Generally, Hispanic voters’ support for President Trump’s handling of immigration is at 21%, 14 points below all voter support.

Given the change in sentiment by U.S. voters concerning immigration and, more importantly, a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, it will be interesting to see the impact the BBB will have as that law calls for an increase in spending of $45 billion a year to secure the border and deport undocumented immigrants.

We have 17 months before the 2026 midterm elections and a lot will change, politically and economically. We are mostly in unchartered territory, but even if we were not, I believe it is very hard to predict what will happen in any election. As always, it depends on who votes. Until then, we will continue to report on this Administration’s policy and political changes and the impacts both will have on people’s lives.