Global Elections Update: Canada, Albania, Trinidad & Tobago, & Cayman Islands

Canada

Overview

Following a highly competitive race, the Liberal Party of Canada won April’s federal elections, securing a majority in the House of Commons. Capitalizing on Justin Trudeau’s replacement as head of the Liberal Party, and growing anti-American sentiment triggered by U.S. President Trump’s trade war with Canada and threats of annexation, Trudeau’s successor, Mark Carney, moved to dissolve parliament and trigger snap elections after assuming his new post in late March. Carney, who was not a member of parliament before the election, secured a seat in parliament to represent the federal electoral district of Nepean, outside of Ottawa. As a member of the Commonwealth of Nations, Canada’s Parliament largely adheres to the British Westminster System.

The Liberals’ timing has resulted in them securing enough seats in the House of Commons to govern independently. However, they ultimately fell three seats short of attaining the 172 seats needed for a simple majority, which would allow for the unilateral passage of legislation in the House of Commons. Meanwhile, the Liberal party’s main rival, and the official opposition, the Conservative Party of Canada, gained several seats in Parliament. Still, the party’s leader, Pierre Poilievre, the head of the Conservative Party, who at one time was expected to succeed Trudeau as Canada’s next premier, lost his seat in the House of Commons. Canada’s three other minority parties that received enough votes to hold a mandate in parliament, the Bloc Québécois, the New Democrats, and the Green Party, all lost seats.

Results

Voter turnout in the election was relatively high at 68.7%, the highest since the Federal elections in 1993. The Liberal Party received 49.3% of the vote, increasing their share of seats in the House of Commons from 152 to 170. The Liberal Party’s victory was buoyed by gains in urban ridings in Manitoba around Winnipeg, a province that has historically been a Conservative Party stronghold, and by significant increases in Quebec, which has traditionally been represented at the federal level by members of the Bloc Québécois. The Conservative Party received 42% of the vote and increased its share of seats in the House of Commons from 120 to 143. The Conservatives performed exceptionally well in the prairie provinces, where they have historically done well, and in central and southern Ontario. Bloc Québécois, the New Democrats, and the Green Party suffered significant losses, losing 11, 17, and 1 seats, respectively.

Outlook

While the Liberal Party’s timing in both enacting leadership change and calling elections has paid off with the party gaining enough seats to be able to govern independently, the Liberals will need to identify a radically new platform separate from that of the Trudeau government that enables the party to retain the support of moderate voter while also reducing Canada’s economic, military and diplomatic dependency on the United States. If not, the Liberal Party risks losing its ability to govern independently and would likely need to rely on the New Democrats again to govern. Carney has emphasized a policy that prioritizes increasing strategic autonomy in all areas. Diversification of trade and alliance, as well as addressing Canada’s housing affordability crisis, will likely be the new primary focuses of the government.

Among efforts to diversify Canada’s international relationships there will be a renewed focus on strengthening military and economic cooperation with existing partners besides the US, such as the UK, EU, and Australia, through enhanced collaboration through the G7 and NATO and efforts to increase defense spending and defense procurement from partners through reform of the Canadian Armed Forces’ defense procurement process. Additional efforts will be made to remove interprovincial trade barriers and diversify trade relations with the EU, China, and other countries to reduce reliance on the U.S. market.

Domestically, Carney announced he aims to address housing affordability through several measures, including promises to double the annual rate of housing construction and commitments to enact legislation that would reduce taxes on newly built homes under CAD 1 million. In addition, Carney also announced recently that the government will reduce the immigration rate to 5% of Canada’s population by 2027, in response to the perceived contributions that high immigration rates have had on housing affordability.

While Carney’s agenda is ambitious, it remains to be seen to what degree Canada can concurrently address domestic challenges while achieving strategic autonomy. Despite Donald Trump’s rhetoric regarding annexing Canada, the recent meeting between Carney and Trump at the White House was uncharacteristically amicable. Carney’s commitment during the meeting to increase Canadian defense spending, a perennial complaint by Trump of Canada under the Trudeau Cabinet, could signal an opportunity for some form of rapprochement. With Canada hosting the G7 summit in Alberta in June, it will be worth watching whether Trump, who has in the past characterized the Summits as a waste of his time, can be convinced to attend, and if he does, what may come out of another meeting with Carney.

Albania

Overview

On May 11, Albania held parliamentary elections to elect 140 members of the legislative power for the next four years. The Socialist Party of Albania (PS), in power since 2013 after three consecutive election victories, held an absolute majority with 74 seats in parliament. The opposition, led by the Democratic Party (PD), contested the election alongside 40 political parties. This is the first election in the country to count the votes of approximately 246,000 Albanians living abroad, following a 2024 electoral reform.

Results

Prime Minister Edi Rama, from the Socialist Party of Albania (PS), was re-elected for a fourth term with 52% of the vote compared to the Democratic Party (PD) which received 34%. The opposition candidate, Sali Berisha (PD), dismissed the election results, claiming fraud and calling for a massive protest on May 16. European observers reported irregularities in campaign financing and electoral coercion of civil servants, while Albania’s special prosecutor is investigating 39 cases of vote buying.

Outlook

PM Rama’s landslide victory will likely overcome doubts about the election results, given the large margin between the top candidates. European leaders have congratulated Edi Rama, including Ursula Von der Leyen and Emmanuel Macron. With 82 seats in parliament, the Socialist Party of Albania (PS) holds the majority needed to implement Prime Minister Rama’s legislative policy agenda. During the campaign, he pledged to secure Albania’s accession to the European Union by 2030 and to tackle economic issues related to pensions and wages.

Trinidad & Tobago

Overview

On April 28, Trinidad and Tobago, an independent nation and member the Commonwealth of Nations, held general elections to choose 41 members of the House of Representatives, the lower house of the Parliament of Trinidad & Tobago, following President Christine Kangaloo’s move to dissolve parliament in March. The two major parties, the incumbent People’s National Movement (PNM) and the United National Congress (UNC), participated in the election alongside fifteen smaller parties and three independent candidates.

Results

The United National Congress (UNC), led by Kamla Persad-Bissessar, achieved control of the House of Representatives securing 26 seats, followed by the PNM and the Tobago People’s Party (TPP), with 13 and 2 seats respectively. This is the strongest performance in UNC’s history. Kamla Persad-Bissessar took office as Prime Minister on May 1, returning to a role she previously held from 2010 to 2015.

Outlook

The leader of the governing People’s National Movement, Stuart Young, conceded defeat, leading to a smooth government transition. The new Prime Minister, Kamla Persad-Bissessar, promised to increase public sector wages, create employment, and reopen the state oil company Petrotrin. In her first week in office, she terminated the Dragon Gas deal with Venezuela to sign new agreements with CARICOM members, including Guyana, Grenada, and Suriname.

Cayman Islands

Overview

The Cayman Islands, a member of the Commonwealth of Nations held a general election on April 30 to elect 19 members of parliament for a four-year term. Two new political parties, the Caymanian Community Party (TCCP) and the Cayman Islands National Party (CINP), challenged the governing party, the People’s Progressive Movement (PPM), led by Premier Julianna O’Connor-Connolly. The government also held a referendum to ask Caymanians about the introduction of a National Lottery, the development of cruise berthing facilities, and the decriminalization of the consumption and possession of cannabis.

Results

The election was inconclusive as no party reached the required 10-seat majority, and parties had to negotiate a coalition. The incumbent PPM, the major political party in the country, won 7 seats, while opposition parties, TCCP, CINP, and independents won 4 seats each. In less than 24 hours, André Banks, leader of the Caymanian Community Party (TCCP), formed a coalition with the Cayman Islands National Party (CINP) and three independents, gathering the support of 11 members of parliament. On May 6, André Banks was sworn in as Premier and Gary “Peanut” Rutty from the CINP as his deputy.

The result of the referendum was a rejection of plans to construct cruise ship berths, alongside approval for establishing a national lottery and decriminalizing the possession of small amounts of cannabis. Although non-binding, the referendum sets a democratic precedent reflecting public preferences for the new government.

Outlook 

Governor Jane Owen, responsible for liaising with the UK Government, has pledged to work with Premier André Banks and respect the government’s autonomy in domestic affairs. The new administration has appointed its cabinet and outlined the main priorities, including stabilizing the country’s finances, improving education, and addressing the cost-of-living.