Global Elections Update: Ecuador & Curaçao

Ecuador

Overview

On April 13, Ecuador held a presidential election between incumbent President Daniel Noboa of the National Democratic Party (AND) and Luisa González of the Citizen Revolution Movement (RC Party). The election restores Ecuador’s regular presidential schedule after the 2023 snap election, which was triggered by former President Guillermo Lasso’s resignation to avoid impeachment. Polls predicted a tight race, and no candidate won a majority in the first round on February 9, when Noboa received 44.1% of the vote and González 43.9%. Noboa, in office since the 2023 snap election, is the son of Álvaro Noboa, one of the country’s wealthiest businessmen, who unsuccessfully ran for president five times. González is a former congresswoman backed by former President Rafael Correa, who currently leads the Citizen Revolution Movement.

Results

On April 13, President Daniel Noboa was re-elected with 55% of the vote, compared to 44% for Luisa González. With a margin of more than 10 percentage points, the National Electoral Council confirmed Noboa’s victory for the 2025–2029 term. However, González refused to accept the results, alleging fraud and demanding a recount. The opposition claims Noboa attempted to influence the outcome by declaring a state of emergency the day before the election in seven provinces where González was leading in the polls.

Outlook

Noboa’s re-election signals continuity in Ecuador’s foreign policy, which is marked by strong ties with the Trump administration and a robust security strategy to reduce violence. However, his administration faces significant challenges: a polarized society, ongoing fraud allegations, and a fragmented National Assembly. Noboa’s party controls only 66 of the 77 seats required for a legislative majority, forcing him to build coalitions to advance his agenda. Fraud claims may complicate negotiations with the Citizen Revolution Movement, which holds 67 seats, as well as with other influential parties such as Pachakutik and the PSC, both sympathetic to Correa’s progressive movement.

Curaçao

Overview

Last month, elections were held to elect members of Curaçao’s 21-member Parliament, the Estates of Curaçao. The Estates of Curaçao was established in 2010 as the successor to the Island Council of Curaçao following the dissolution of the Netherlands Antilles and the creation of Curaçao and St. Maarten in 2010. It is based on proportional representation. Curaçao is an autonomous constituent of the Kingdom of the Netherlands. Curaçao determines its policies except for defense and foreign policy, over which the Netherlands retains control. The elections saw Movement Futuro Kòrsou (MFK) secure a majority of 13 seats.

Results

The center-right Movement Futuro Kòrsou (MFK) won the most seats, securing 55% of the vote and gaining four seats to hold an absolute majority with 13 of the 21 seats in the Estates of Curaçao. MFK’s victory is significant as it is the first time a party has won an absolute majority under the Estates of Curaçao. MFK’s leading coalition partner, the Christian democratic National People’s Party (PNP), neither gained nor lost any of its four seats. Meanwhile, the main opposition, the center-left Real Alternative Party (PAR), lost half of its four seats, and social democratic Partido MAN maintained its existing two seats. Voter turnout was 69%, a slight decrease from a 74% turnout rate in 2021.

Outlook

MFK’s victory and absolute majority removed its need to rely on its historic coalition partner, the PNP. The party’s gains in recent elections can largely be credited to its appeal to younger voters. Following the election, MFK leader Gilmar Pisas was sworn in again as Prime Minister. MFK, which oversaw Curaçao’s post-Covid recovery, is recognized for its strong focus on attracting investments and supporting business. In his comments after the victory, Pisas stated that there would be no referendum on Curaçao’s constitutional status, which has remained a perennial issue. While MFK’s historic victory enables the opportunity to focus on implementing its policy agenda independently, MFK is untested in governing independently and faces more significant risks to its reputation if it fails to govern effectively. MFK must address several issues, including Curaçao’s housing shortage and challenges with affordable health care while implementing policies that address the over-dependency of Curaçao’s economy on revenues from its tourism industry.