Global Elections Update: Romania & Uruguay

Romania

Overview

Following the first round of polling in Romania’s presidential elections on November 24^th and ahead of the second round scheduled on December 8^th, Romania’s top court took the unprecedented move of annulling the results. The results of the first round of voting saw the far right and pro-Russian candidate, Călin Georgescu, win the greatest share of the vote (22.95%), followed by Elena Lasconi (19.17%), President of the liberal Save Romanian Union Party (USR). However, the Constitutional Court annulled the results, citing Russian election meddling through an organized disinformation campaign on TikTok aimed at boosting Georgescu’s candidacy. These claims were detailed in documents compiled by Romania’s security services that were declassified by President Claus Iohannis just prior to the court’s ruling. Presidential elections and the court’s decision came in the immediate aftermath of parliamentary elections that took place on December 1^st, in which Romania’s establishment center-left Social Democratic Party (PSD) received the largest share of the vote but also saw several newer far-right parties make substantial gains in both chambers of the Romanian Parliament. The court’s decision will lead the new parliament to set a date for a rerun of elections.

Results

Parliamentary elections saw the incumbent PSD win the greatest share of the vote (21.96%), a smaller share than in 2020, resulting in PSD’s loss of 11 seats in the Senate and 24 seat in the Chamber of Deputies. The right-wing Alliance for the Union of Romania (AUR) came in second (18.01%), gaining 14 seats in the Senate and 63 in the Chamber of Deputies. AUR was followed respectively by the National Liberal Party (PNL) (13.2%), USR (12.4%), S.O.S. Romania (7.36%), Party of Young People (POT) (6.46%), and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) (6.33%). Of the overall electorate, 48.28% voted, an increase compared to 2020’s parliamentary elections.

Outlook

Following the Constitutional Court’s decision, Romania’s next government must set a new date for presidential elections. Romania’s pro-EU parties, PSD, PNL, USR, and UDMR have agreed to form a coalition government despite past rivalries, citing recent gains by far-right political elements in Romania and potential impacts on Romania’s membership in the EU and NATO. The crisis comes at a pivotal time for Romania, with the EU having accepted Romania into the Schengen Area on December 12^th.

Facing such an unprecedented situation, Romania’s pro-EU parties are under pressure to quickly form a lasting majority governing coalition. The grouping of pro-EU parties has already announced that it would jointly field a candidate to run in presidential elections, and negotiations between the four parties on forming a coalition government are ongoing. Whether these negotiations will prove successful remains uncertain with key issues still pending, including who the coalition will select as its candidate for prime minister and which parties will receive cabinet positions. The possible coalition, which largely represents Romania’s political establishment acknowledges its upcoming challenges, including reducing government bureaucracy and budget deficit while ensuring major infrastructure projects. Additionally, it is still unclear whether Georgescu will be allowed to run again in a rerun of presidential elections given his alleged Russian ties and how far he and his party will challenge the judiciary’s annulment decision.

Uruguay

Overview

In November Uruguay held presidential elections to determine who will lead the country for the next four years. The candidates were Yamandú Orsi from the center-left Broad Front party and Álvaro Delgado from the ruling National Party. The first round of voting took place on October 27th but did not yield an outright winner (over 50% of the votes). As a result, a runoff was scheduled for November 24th, in which Delgado gathered the support of the Colorado Party, consolidating the conservative vote in an effort to close the gap with Orsi.

Results

As predicted by polls, the election was tightly contested, but Orsi secured the presidency with 49.8% of the vote, narrowly defeating Delgado, who garnered 45.9%. Both outgoing President Luis Lacalle Pou and Delgado acknowledged Orsi’s victory, ensuring a smooth transition of power. Voter turnout reached 90%, a characteristic figure for Uruguay, where voting is mandatory. The Broad Front, which governed from 2005 to 2020 retains strong popular support, further bolstered by former President José Mujica’s endorsement of Orsi.

Outlook

President-elect Orsi is set to take office in March 2025. He has pledged to promote national dialogue during his administration, a strategic decision given that his party lacks a majority in the Chamber of Deputies. His campaign prioritized addressing inequality and crime, as well as reforming the pension system, an initiative that failed during President Lacalle’s government.

Orsi and his vice president, Carolina Cosse, have already announced their cabinet. Among the critical challenges facing the new administration is addressing the rising cost of food. Gabriel Oddone, incoming Minister of Economy and Finance, has proposed measures and regulatory reforms to encourage market competition. Another key focus will be revitalizing economic growth, which has stagnated over the past decade alongside rising poverty levels.